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6.18 Kinematic Fragment Spray Pattern Simulation
Using the fragment initial velocities and aerodynamic calculations, the
deceleration due to aerodynamic drag of the various fragments was modelled
and calculated. The results of these calculations were used to perform a
kinematic simulation of the fragment spray pattern. This simulation includes
missile speed, speed of the Boeing 777, initial fragment speeds and fragment
deceleration and was used to validate the results obtained from the
Fragmentation Visualization Model. The location, orientation and airspeed of the
warhead at the time of detonation of the Fragmentation Visualization Model
could be validated with this Kinematic Fragment Spray Pattern Simulation.
To visualize these results slow-motion movies of the simulation were made.
Figure 60 shows several frames of this simulation in a top down view. The red
cylinder represents the boundary of the fastest fragments and the yellow
cylinder the boundary of the slowest. The fragment spray pattern cloud is a
complex shape located in between these two cylinders.
On detonation the missile disintegrates and forms the secondary fragmentation
described in Section 6.16. Extrapolating the missile trajectory in the Kinematic
Fragment Spray Pattern Simulation shows that the secondary fragmentation
caused by this disintegration, as depicted in Figure 55, will travel in the direction
of the left engine. This secondary fragmentation damage is consistent with the
damage observed on the left engine cowling ring shown in Section 2.11. The
secondary damage on the left wingtip is assessed to be caused by a larger missile
fragment grazing the upper surface of the wingtip.
Figure 61 shows several frames of the movie with a perspective view from the
left-hand side. The location and the boundaries where the fragments impact the
fuselage match with the observed damage as seen in Section 2.9

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6.19 Missile flyout simulation
The advanced six degrees of freedom missile flyout simulation WEST (Weapon
Engagement Simulation Tool) was used to assess that the missile end speed and
orientation (angles), obtained from the damage matching of the previous
sections, could be realized by an engagement of flight MH17 by the 9M38(M1)
missile. This simulation is based on a validated aerodynamic missile flyout model,
a rocket engine thrust profile model and models of the radar seeker, missile
guidance logic and autopilot, and is able to accurately calculate the missile
trajectory and kinematic performance. Figure 62 shows two frames of this
missile flyout simulation.

Figure 62: Missile flyout simulation

6.20 Missile Launch Area
The area from where the missile was launched was calculated using the damage
matching study described in the previous sections, and the last recorded Flight
Data Recorder position of flight MH17. The damage matching study determined
the weapon’s end conditions (orientation and airspeed at detonation) associated
with the best match of the damage observed on the wreckage. Using the missile
simulation software WEST, numerous missile launches were simulated over a
grid of launch locations on the ground. At each launch location, the missile
launch angles in the horizontal and vertical plane were varied to minimize the
difference between the simulated end conditions and those associated with the
best match of the damage.
To account for a number of uncertainties in weapon performance and guidance,
a range of orientation angles and airspeeds around the best match end
conditions was defined. The launch locations for which the simulated end
conditions are within this defined range constitute the possible launch area. This
means that a missile launched from within this area can result in the damage

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6.21 Surface-to-Air Missile scenario conclusion
Based upon the observed damage on the wreckage of flight MH17 and the
capabilities of the BUK surface-to-air missile system, the following conclusions
can be drawn:
• The BUK missile system is capable of engaging a Boeing 777 with the
airspeed and at the altitude flight MH17 was flying at.
• The location of the damage on the wreckage is consistent with the effects
of a warhead detonation point initiated by the proximity fuse of the
9M38(M1) missile.
• The amount of damage on the wreckage is consistent with a relatively
large warhead such as the 70 kg 9N314M BUK warhead.
• The type of damage on the wreckage of the cockpit is consistent with the
type of damage caused by the primary fragmentation of the 9N314M
preformed fragmentation warhead.
• The boundary and impact angles of the damage on the wreckage of the
cockpit are consistent with the primary fragment spray pattern of the
9N314M warhead detonating to the left of, and above, the cockpit.
• The number and density of hits on the wreckage of the cockpit is
consistent with the number and density of hits expected from the
detonation of the 9N314M warhead.
• The size of the penetration damage on the wreckage of the cockpit is
consistent with the size of the fragments of the 9N314M warhead.
• The damage on the left engine cowling ring and the left wingtip is
consistent with the secondary fragmentation pattern of the 9M38(M1)
missile.
• The bowtie fragments found in the wreckage of the cockpit are consistent
with the bowtie fragments unique to the 9N314M warhead.
• The direction of both the primary and the secondary damage on the
wreckage is consistent with the missile orientation and end speed as
obtained by a 9M38(M1) BUK missile launched from a launch area in the
east of Ukraine.
Based on these points it is concluded that the damage observed on the wreckage
of flight MH17 is caused by the 9N314M warhead of the 9M38(M1) BUK surfaceto-air missile launched from a launch area in the east of Ukraine.

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Air-to-Air Missile scenario
The damage observed on the wreckage is not consistent with the damage caused
by the warhead of the R-60 air-to-air missile in amount of damage, type of
damage and used materials. The damage observed on the wreckage is not
consistent with the damage caused by the rod warheads used by most air-to-air
missiles. The fragments of the fragmentation warheads used by other air-to-air
missiles are not consistent with the bowtie fragments found in the wreckage.
The damage on the wreckage of flight MH17 is therefore not caused by an air-toair missile.
Surface-to-Air Missile scenario
Based upon the observed damage on the wreckage of flight MH17 and the
capabilities of the BUK surface-to-air missile system, the following conclusions
can be drawn:
• The BUK missile system is capable of engaging a Boeing 777 with the
airspeed and at the altitude flight MH17 was flying at.
• The location of the damage on the wreckage is consistent with the effects
of a warhead detonation point initiated by the proximity fuse of the
9M38(M1) missile.
• The amount of damage on the wreckage is consistent with a relatively
large warhead such as the 70 kg 9N314M BUK warhead.
• The type of damage on the wreckage of the cockpit is consistent with the
type of damage caused by the primary fragmentation of the 9N314M
preformed fragmentation warhead.
• The boundary and impact angles of the damage on the wreckage of the
cockpit are consistent with the primary fragment spray pattern of the
9N314M warhead detonating to the left of, and above, the cockpit.
• The number and density of hits on the wreckage of the cockpit is
consistent with the number and density of hits expected from the
detonation of the 9N314M warhead.
• The size of the penetration damage on the wreckage of the cockpit is
consistent with the size of the fragments of the 9N314M warhead.
• The damage on the left engine cowling ring and the left wingtip is
consistent with the secondary fragmentation pattern of the 9M38(M1)
missile.
• The bowtie fragments found in the wreckage of the cockpit are consistent
with the bowtie fragments unique to the 9N314M warhead.
• The direction of both the primary and the secondary damage on the
wreckage is consistent with the missile orientation and end speed as
obtained by a 9M38(M1) BUK missile launched from a launch area in the
east of Ukraine.

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8 References

1. Robert E. Ball, The Fundamentals of Aircraft Combat Survivability Analysis
and Design, Second Edition, American Institute of Aeronautics and
Astronautics, 2003.

2. Dutch Safety Board, Preliminary report Crash involving Malaysia Airlines
Boeing 777-200 flight MH17, The Hague, September 2014.

3. TNO, TNO 2015 M11094, Damage reconstruction due to impact of highenergetic particles on Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, Rijswijk, August 2015.

4. Almaz-Antey, Materials on the characteristics of the BUK missiles
requested by the NLR experts, Moskou, 29 July 2015.