Стр.101
Iraq war 1991
Likelihood of attack indicators
A. Parties: 1. Conflict between states. 2. Conflict between non-state armed groups and state(s) or civil wars. 3. Conflict between non-state armed groups. | Conflict between non-state armed groups and state(s) or civil wars. The Persian Gulf War, also known as “The Gulf War,” was a conflict between Iraq and 34 other countries, led by the United States. The conflicting parties were: The Allied Coalition Forces consisting of 34 nations and the Iraqi Armed Forces (Army, Air Force, Navy, Iraqi Republican Guard). The conflict started with the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq on August 2, 1990, with the Allied Coalition military offensive beginning January 16, 1991. The official ceasefire was declared February 28, 1991.102 |
B. Armed conflict scale and/or tensions: 1. Terrorism and/or international political tension. 2. Insurgency (small-scale military activities) and/ or medium increasing political tension. 3. Large-scale military activities and/or heightened international political tension. | Large-scale military activities. The Allied Coalition’s Operation Desert Storm involved approximately 750,000 troops. The coalition aerial strike-force comprised over 2,250 combat aircraft (including 1,800 US aircraft). By contrast, the Iraqi Forces were estimated to be 1,000,000 personnel, having 934 combat-capable aircraft (including trainers) of which 550 were operational. The air campaign of the Gulf War was an extensive aerial bombing campaign. The Coalition of the Gulf War flew over 100,000 sorties, dropping 88,500 tons of bombs, widely destroying military and civilian infrastructure.103 |
C. Military air transport activities: 1. Military air transport activities not reported. 2. Occasional use of aircraft to transport ground troops or military equipment. 3. More than occasional use of aircraft to transport ground troops or military equipment by at least one party). | Use of aircraft to transport ground troops or military equipment by at least one party (such aircraft may be more difficult to distinguish from civil aircraft, particularly where operating near airways and close to civil aircraft cruising altitudes). More than 145 C-130 aircraft deployed in support of Desert Shield/Desert Storm. The C-130s flew 46,500 sorties and moved more than 209,000 people and 300,000 tons of supplies within the theater. C-141 aircraft operated 8,536 strategic airlift missions, followed by the C-5 with 3,770; the KC-10 with 379 and the C-9 with 209. UK C-130, VC10 and L1011 Tristar also operated across the operational area. |
D. Military air combat activities: 1. No military air combat activities. 2. Small-scale (occasional) military air combat activities and/or some activities above FL 250. 3. Large- to medium-scale military air combat activities and/or regular activities above FL 250 | Military air combat activities. Military combat activities involving the Allied Coalition and the Iraqi Air Force. |
E. Known attacks: 1. Conflict area without publicly reported security incidents involving military and civil aviation. 2. Conflict area with single security-related reported incident/accident involving military (or civil) aviation. 3. Conflict area with multiple reported securityrelated incident/accident involving military (or civil) aviation. | Conflict area with multiple reported incidents/accidents involving military (or civil) aviation. Military armed conflict existed throughout the airspace. UNSCR 678 authorised use of all necessary means to force Iraqi forces out of Kuwait after 15 Jan 1991. Widely reported by international media. |
F. Capability to attack by at least one party: 1. No information for capability to attack with range above FL 250. 2. Air-to-air missiles launched from fighter aircraft (and no SAMs). 3. Long-range surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) that can hit an aircraft at cruising level. | Long-range surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) that can hit an aircraft at cruising level. Both parties in this conflict had the capability to hit civilian aircraft in the region with SAM and air-to-air missiles.104 |
102 Mockaitis, Thomas R.: Iraq War Encyclopedia ABC-CLIO, 2013
103 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War_air_campaign
104 Mockaitis, Thomas R.: Iraq War Encyclopedia ABC-CLIO, 2015, pg.18