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Finding 2: Based on an analysis of reported surface-toair attacks against civil aviation flights for the period of
1985‒2020, MANPADS are the most common weapon
used against civil aviation. MANPADS are generally
easier to obtain and use than larger, non-portable SAM
systems. However, the size of most MANPADS warheads means that a catastrophic outcome is not certain.
By comparison, the SAM events identified show that a
catastrophic outcome from an effective attack is highly
probable. The presence of SAMs should therefore be a
key indicator in any airspace risk analysis and avoid/
overfly decision.
3.6. Risk and Capability Engagement Altitude
In 34 of the hostile events in the Foundation “Hostile
Events in Civil Aviation” database, information about
the engagement altitude was found. The engagement
altitude for the hostile events in the Foundation database
is presented in Figure 14. The Flight MH17 event is also
indicated on the figure for reference.
Three (four, including the Flight MH17 event, which
was not considered in the hostile events analysis) of the
events occurred above Flight Level (FL) 250 and 19 occurred below FL 50

There were five occurrences, depicted in red in Figure
14, identified as involving a SAM attack. Two of these
events (Iran Air, 1988, and Ukraine International Airlines,
2020) occurred within the limits of MANPADS engagement altitude. The occurrences depicted in blue involved
capability to attack other than a SAM.
From the analysis, it appears that MANPADS range can
be greater than sometimes assumed. A U.S. government
assessment, published in July 2011, stated that MANPADS
could “strike aircraft flying at altitudes up to approximately
15,000 feet at a range of up to 3.2 miles [5.9 km].” However,
data associated with a 1990 attack on an IL-76 in Afghanistan recorded its altitude when hit by a U.S.-manufactured
Raytheon FIM-92 Stinger MANPADS missile as FL 255. In
this case, the missile was fired from high terrain. Therefore,
the launch altitude for MANPADS can have a significant
effect on their range and maximum engagement altitude.
It can be concluded that a reliable initial assessment
of risk to airspace users demands an accurate up-to-date
assessment of any effective capability in the hands of potential non-state aggressors and state actors.
The analysis of the engagement altitude, the associated phase of flight and the typical cruising altitude for an
involved type of aircraft reveals that FL 250 is well selected

Figure 14
Altitude Distribution
https://a.radikal.ru/a05/2102/fa/757bd7398579.jpg
SAM attack    Other than SAM attack

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for studying the security risk for aircraft at a cruising level
that does not include the risk of MANPADS.
3.7. Intentional vs. Unintentional Attack
The two origins of risk to airspace users are “intentional
act” and “unintentional act.” State perpetrators’ acts are
generally associated with the latter explanation. And while
irregular perpetrators also make targeting errors, in some
regional conflict zones, an intent to bring down civil transport aircraft has featured prominently in their actions.
In terms of consequences, the most difficult to predict
risk with the most serious consequences is error by those
controlling the offensive capability of well-armed states.
Recent history shows that this capability can sometimes
be inadequately controlled both during training exercises
and when applying the “offensive engagement approval” process in the general context of growing political
instability.
Table 3 presents information about unintentional attack
occurrences extracted from the Foundation database.
There are eight such events identified and all but one
involved military misidentification of the target identity
and/or intentions. The remaining 49 events involved either an intentional attack or events for which the Foundation did not find information regarding intent.
The capability of “irregular perpetrators” is likely to be
less than that of states unless states are pursuing an aggressive policy objective by equipping irregulars with offensive
capability much greater than they normally would possess

(older versions of MANPADS with less than current frontline capability, for example).
3.8. Hostile Events and Conflict Zone Flights
The analysis of the Foundation database sample suggests
that the primary risk of overflying conflict zones at high
cruising altitudes is the mis-targeting of long-range airburst missiles. Based on our sample, these long-range missiles are unlikely to be in the possession of non-state actors.
Information about the risk of flight within a conflict
zone is usually disseminated with a NOTAM.
The hostile events analysis identified several conflict
zones where either an obvious intent to attack or factors
for an unintentional attack existed. These zones, listed below, were considered candidates for further conflict zone
analysis as part of the study.
• Afghanistan;
• Georgia during civil war, 1991‒1993;
• Iraq;
• Libya;
• Democratic Republic of the Congo; and,
• Nagorno-Karabakh war.
Angola, where a number of attacks occurred, including
the TransAfrik event noted above, was reviewed for inclusion, but is not included in the final list because the parties
involved did not have a capability to attack aircraft flying
at cruise altitude.

Table 3
Unintentional Acts and Their Context

11-Jun-87

Afghanistan

Misidentified as a Russian IL14.

Bakhtar Afghan

Hezb-i-Islami

n/k

53/2/0

03-Jul-88

Iran

Military misidentified target as
a descending Iranian F-14.

Iran Air

U.S. Navy

13,500 ft

290/0/0

29-Aug-99

Ethiopia

Military targeting error after
proceeding into NOTAM
closed airspace.

Corporate Jets

Ethiopian Army

FL 410

2/0/0

04-Oct-01

Black Sea

Military exercise missile
overshot intended target at
18 nm (33 km) by 140 nm (259
km) after locking onto it.

Sibir Airlines

Ukraine Armed
Forces

FL 360

78/0/0

26-Jan-15

Iraq

Probably accidental, rounds
from nearby social event.

FlyDubai

n/k

<2,000 ft

0/2/X

08-Jan-20

Iran

Military misidentified aircraft
as a hostile target.

Ukraine
International

Iranian Armed
Forces

8,100 ft

176/0/0

04-May-20

Somalia

Military misidentified goingaround aircraft as a suicide plane.

Ethiopian
troops as part
of AMISOM

2.230 ft

6/0/0

25-May-20

Somalia

Military misidentified aircraft
and opened fire.

Aeronav/Kenya
School of Flying

Ethiopian
troops as part
of AMISOM

<1,200 ft

0/0/X

AMISOM = African Union Mission to Somalia; n/k = not known; NOTAM = notice to airmen

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4. Conflict Zones Analysis: 1990–2014

4.1. Purpose of the Conflict Zones Analysis
Within the context of this study, the purpose of the
conflict zones analysis was to set data-defined context for
other research components by providing an overview of
state practices regarding airspace restrictions above and/or
around conflict zones. Among other things, the Foundation focussed on determining the presence of air defence
equipment (both air-to-air and surface-to-air) during a
conflict and the restrictions that were applicable to the use
of the airspace.
4.2. Conflict Zones Sample
Conflict zones were selected in the following manner:
• Based on publicly available information for the major
conflict zones in the world.
• Conflict zones were active during the period
1990‒2014.
• There was a reasonable expectation, prior to commencing the analysis, of the existence of capability to
attack at altitudes above FL 250. As defined previously, the scope of the study is determined by the overall
objective of the research related to Flight MH17 and
does not include the risk from MANPADS. In this
respect, the study scope is restricted to the airspace
management state practices for cruising altitudes that
are more than 25 000 ft above ground level. FL 250 is
also the altitude limit that is often used in state advisories or restrictions for operations in particular airspace with regard to risk associated with MANPADS.
Following the above-outlined study-specific requirements,
and including the results of the hostile events analysis, the
conflict zones selected for analysis are:
• Bosnian war, 1992‒1997.
• Croatian war, 1991‒1995.
• Democratic Republic of the Congo — it is to be
noted that this conflict zone is the only one from the
sample for which the analysis concluded that there
was low likelihood of the presence of capability to
attack above FL 250. However, the analysis is kept in
the sample to provide context and perspective.
• Egypt (Sinai).
• Georgia-Russia, 2008.
• Iraq war, 1991.
• Iraq war, 2003–2011.
• Kosovo, Allied Force 1999.
• Libya, 2011

• Slovenia, 1991.
• Afghanistan, 2001‒present.
• Armenia Azerbaijan.
• Ivory Coast, 2002‒2004.
• Indonesia (Aceh), 1990‒1998.
• Mali, 2012‒2015.
4.3. Conflict Zone Indicators
The situation in each conflict zone was reviewed relative
to a set of 10 predetermined “indicators of likelihood of
attack,” such as the presence of SAMs capable of reaching
a target in flight above FL 250.
Each of the indicators is considered as a question with
possible answers numbered from 1 to 3. The number of
the answer is an indication of likelihood, with 1 indicating, in general and with all other conditions being equal,
the lowest likelihood of attack. The higher the number of
the answer, the greater is the indication of the likelihood
of attack.
The indicators are defined as follows:
A. Parties:
1. Conflict between states.
2. Conflict between non-state armed groups and
state(s) or civil wars.
3. Conflict between non-state armed groups.
B. Armed conflict scale and/or tensions:
1. Terrorism and/or international political tension.
2. Insurgency (small-scale military activities) and/
or medium increasing political tension.
3. Large-scale military activities and/or heightened
international political tension.
C. Military air transport activities ‒ Use of aircraft to
transport ground troops or military equipment by
at least one party (such aircraft may be difficult to
distinguish from civil aircraft, particularly when
they operate near airways and close to civil aircraft
cruising altitudes):
1. Military air transport activities not reported.
2. Occasional use of aircraft to transport ground
troops or military equipment.
3. More than occasional use of aircraft to transport
ground troops or military equipment (by at least
one party).
D. Military air combat activities ‒ Use of military aircraft in a combat role or for hostile reconnaissance

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by at least one party in the conflict. This could
include remotely piloted (unmanned) aircraft:
1. No military air combat activities.
2. Small-scale (occasional) military air combat
activities and/or some activities above FL 250.
3. Large- to medium-scale military air combat
activities and/or regular activities above FL 250.
E. Known attacks:
1. Conflict area without any publicly reported
security incidents involving military and civil
aviation.
2. Conflict area with a single security-related
reported incident/accident involving military (or
civil) aviation.
3. Conflict area with multiple reported security-related incidents/accidents involving military (or
civil) aviation.
F. Capability to attack by at least one party:
1. No information about capability to attack with
range above FL 250.
2. Air-to-air missiles (AAMs) launched from fighter aircraft (and no SAMs) and/or some indication (but not full certainty) of long-range SAMs
that can hit an aircraft at cruising level.
3. Long-range SAMs that can hit an aircraft at
cruising level.
G. Capability to differentiate between civil and military
aircraft:
1. Differentiation supported by radar, electronic identification and non-cooperative target
recognition systems measuring signature using
acoustic and thermal radiation, radio emissions,
radar techniques.
2. Differentiation supported by radar and electronic
identification (e.g., identification, friend or foe
(IFF); or secondary surveillance radar (SSR).
3. Differentiation supported only by radar tracks.
H. SAM/AAM operators’ experience and chain of
command:
1. Regular forces.
2. SAMs in the possession of irregular military forces
or an absence of robust SAM/AAM command and
control procedures for authorizing launch.
3. SAMs in the possession of irregular military forces
and an absence of robust SAM/AAM command
and control procedures for authorizing launch.

I. Known intent to attack:
1. Known intent to attack military aircraft.
2. Known intent to attack civil aircraft.
3. Communication of intent and a plan to attack
civil aircraft or actual attack against civil aircraft.
J. Civil aircraft operations over or close to conflict
zone (with and without the airspace restrictions, if
any):
1. No air traffic or only occasional traffic.
2. Small to moderate traffic volume (for example,
traffic restricted to arrivals and departures to
airports).
3. Considerable traffic volume, including international overflights
The 10 indicators belong to groups of indicators defined
in Section 2 that characterise the security threat. Each of
the 10 indicators can belong to more than one group as
follows:
• Capability to attack: indicators D, F and G.
• Intent to attack: indicators E and I.
• Possibility for an unintentional attack: indicators B,
C, D, G, H and J.
• Conflict parties’ command and control: indicators A,
B and H.
One of the indicators, “The capability to attack by at
least one party,” is used as the primary filter, because the
presence of an air defence system (surface-to-air or airto-air) that can reach aircraft above FL 250 is an enabling
risk factor at that altitude. The only possible exception
would be an aircraft emergency such as an engine failure
requiring a drift-down or an aircraft pressurisation failure
leading to an emergency descent within the range of lower
altitude capability to attack.
Other indicators of likelihood of attack were considered.
Within them are some indirect indicators that are based
on others’ risk analyses. Examples of such indicators are
the behaviour of large airlines and/or airlines with better
access to risk information and the information from underwriting companies.
Detailed information about conflict zones is now
generated globally by the insurance industry and is used
to determine underwriting risk for so-called “war risk
insurance” on an hour-by-hour basis. The risk assessments
are used to set premiums for a given route, whether for
overflight or landing, and underwriters may even refuse to
insure an operator if the risk is considered to be unacceptably high. Sudden increases, sustained high premiums
or refusals of coverage may therefore provide a useful
indicator of overflight risk before formal airspace closures

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or NOTAM warnings are issued. Operators will balance
insurance costs against the cost of flying a less efficient
avoidance route as part of their own risk assessment for a
given flight; however, state authorities can lawfully direct
their certificated operators to avoid a given area regardless
of any efficiency penalties.
The indicators based on the behaviour of airlines and
underwriters, although considered important in general, were not retained for the conflict zone risk analysis
because of the lack of access to such historical information
for the studied conflict zones.
Apart from the conflict zone likelihood of attack, and
within the context of this study, there is another important
indicator — the indicator of airspace restrictions. This
indicator describes when airspace restrictions were introduced, what airspace they affected and how they evolved
over time including:
• Restrictions by the sovereign authority (state) responsible for the airspace.
• Restrictions by others — third parties (for example,
introducing a no-fly zone) and/or neighbouring
states.
4.4. Overview of the Conflict Zone Analysis
Table 4 (p. 31) provides an overview of the analysed conflict zones.
The individual indicators of likelihood of attack (A
to J) are coloured to illustrate how each contributes to the
overall likelihood of attack. Green boxes indicate a low
contribution to the likelihood, red boxes indicate a high
contribution to the likelihood and yellow means a medium contribution to the likelihood.
The overall likelihood of attack is defined qualitatively
as follows:
• High means a very plausible scenario that includes
the presence of civil aircraft operations and evidence
of capability and intent to attack or high indication
of likelihood of unintentional attack.
• Low means a scenario with no information about capability to attack or without civil aircraft operations
or low indication of unintentional attack.
• Medium means a scenario that is not covered by the
either the high or low likelihood to attack definitions.
The overall likelihood of attack is not just a simple
aggregation of the 10 indications of likelihood of attack
provided by the 10 individual indicators. For example, the
indicator “capability to attack by at least one party,” apart
from influencing the risk factors for an unintentional
attack, is also a key filtering factor that, in the beginning of
the risk analysis, defines with its indication the subsequent
course of the risk analysis. Indeed, if in a given conflict
zone there is (certainty of) no capability to attack above

FL 250, then there is no need to analyse the other indicators, and the likelihood of attack there can be considered
to be low.
Another example of the complex interactions of the
indicators and their influence on the likelihood of attack
can be illustrated by discussing the “intent to attack” and
“capability to attack” indicators. High likelihood of attack
is determined not simply by the intent of one of the conflict parties to attack, but also by their capability to attack
at that altitude.
Similarly, fusing the information from the six indicators related to the likelihood of unintentional attack only
makes sense when military aviation assets are in possession of the enemies of the parties that possess capability.
With the aim of providing an overall assessment of the
likelihood of attack in a conflict zone while at the same
time addressing all the complexities related to the interactions of the individual indicators in their influence the
likelihood of attack, the Foundation used proprietary risk
analysis algorithms. The algorithms were parametrised to
assess the overall likelihood of attack above FL 250, and
the results are provided in Table 4.
Using the algorithms, two sets of assessment were performed — one factoring the civil aviation traffic volume
for the situation after introducing the airspace restrictions
(if any), and the other for assessing the situation as if
airspace restrictions were not in effect. The latter assessment is hypothetical and is not the same as the assessment
of the likelihood before the introduction of the airspace
restrictions. The reason for that is because before the
introduction of airspace restrictions, many of the other
indicators were often also different — the military combat
activities have not commenced, the armed conflict scale
was still to be seen and the attacks on military aircraft
were still to be performed.
For each set of assessments, separate “algorithm runs”
were performed for each credible capability to attack.
Here are some examples of risk scenarios that determine
separate runs of the algorithm:
• Long-range SAM capability of one conflict party that
could result in intentional or unintentional attack
against civil aircraft;
• AAM capability of a party that could result in intentional or unintentional attack against civil aircraft;
and,
• A scenario (specific to the mountainous terrain in
places like Afghanistan) where MANPADS can reach
above FL 250.
The overall likelihood for a given set of algorithm runs is
determined by the highest risk assessed for the scenarios
within the set. For example, in a given set (with or without
airspace restrictions), if the likelihood of attack associated

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Table 4
Overview of the Conflict Zone Analysis

https://a.radikal.ru/a02/2102/20/33f868cddbfa.jpg

Òåêñò

No information Command and control factors
High likelihood indication Risk factors for an unintentional attack
Medium likelihood indication Capability to attack
Low likelihood indication Intent to attack
Overall indication of
likelihood of attack
above FL 250
A.
Parties
B.
Armed
conflict
scale and/or
tensions
H.
SAM
operators’
experience
and chain of
command
C.
Military air
transport
activities
J.
Civil aircraft
operations
(with
airspace
restrictions)
D.
Military
air combat
activities
G.
Capability to
differentiate
between civil
and military
aircraft
F.
Capability
to attack by
at least one
party
E.
Known
attacks
I.
Known
intent to
attack (civil a/c)
Airspace
Restrictions
above FL 250
With actual (civil a/c)
airspace
restrictions
Without
airspace
restrictions
Bosnian war 1992-1997 Others’ restrictions
Croatian war 1991-1995 Partially restricted
Democratic Republic of the Congo No restriction
Egypt (Sinai) No restrictions
Georgia-Russia 2008 No restriction
Iraq war 1991 Others’ restrictions
Iraq war 2003-2011 Others’ restrictions
Kosovo, Allied Force 1999 Others’ restrictions
Libya 2011 Others’ restrictions
Slovenia 1991 Restricted
Afghanistan 2001- present No restrictions
Armenia Azerbaijan Restricted
Ivory Coast 2002-2004 No restriction
Indonesia (Aceh) 1990-1998 No restriction
Mali 2012-2015 No restriction
Georgian civil wars 1991-93 No restriction

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with air-to-air unintentional attack is assessed as medium and the likelihood of attack with long range SAMs is
assessed as high, then the likelihood of attack for the set is
considered high. This is intuitively logical because for an
aircraft operator and the general public, what is important
is not how the attack will be performed but the likelihood
of attack when flying in a given airspace.
4.5. Discussion of the Conflict Zone Analysis
In this section, we analyse the data in Table 4 and draw
conclusions based on the historical evidence and our
expert analysis.
In analysing these conflict zones, sometimes the evidence and expert interpretations led to clear conclusions,
and in other cases, due to lack of information, a conclusion could not be definitively established.
The overview of the conflict zones analysis provided in
Table 4 reveals (see the two columns under the common
title “Overall indication of likelihood of attack above
FL 250”) that in the studied sample there are only two
conflict zones where a state completely closed its own
airspace. These are the conflict zones of “Slovenia, 1991”
and “Armenia-Azerbaijan.”
In one conflict zone, “Croatian war, 1991‒1995,” the airspace was partially closed. In five of the analysed conflict
zones, the airspace was closed by other states or organisations and not the sovereign state — for example by a U.N.
Security Council resolution, as in the case of “Libya, 2011,”
or by the neighbouring states, as in the case of “Kosovo,
Allied Force, 1999.”
For eight conflict zones, either there were no airspace
restrictions or no information about airspace restrictions
could be found.
The analysis of airspace restrictions for the studied sample of 16 conflict zones is illustrated in Figure 15.
Overall, there are 11 conflict zones with medium or
high indication of likelihood of attack without airspace
restrictions. Of these 11 conflict zones, there was only
one instance in which the sovereign state responsible
for that airspace introduced airspace restrictions — see
Figure 16.
Finding 3: The analysis of selected conflict zones over the
period of 1990‒2014 did not identify a uniform practice
of states closing their own airspace when there were
indications of a likelihood of attack against civil aircraft
in the context of an armed conflict on the territory of
that state.
In the few cases in the sample where states partially
or completely closed their airspace, this was often associated with the loss of effective control over the relevant
airspace by the state — Yugoslavia with the “Croatian war,
1991‒1995” and with “Slovenia, 1991” and the conflict
zone “Armenia-Azerbaijan.”

Finding 4: The analysis of selected conflict zones over
the period of 1990‒2014 identified that, on the rare
occasions when a state restricted its own airspace above
FL 250, it was associated with the loss of effective control over the relevant airspace by the state.
Whenever a state closes or restricts its own airspace above
FL 250, or such a restriction is imposed by a third party
(such as in the introduction of a “no fly zone” by an entity
like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization), the predominant concerns historically have related to the security of
military operations, military aircraft traversing airspace,
and the protection of ground infrastructure and of the
Figure 15
Sample of 16 Conflict Zones
https://d.radikal.ru/d24/2102/f0/252d5dbf3deb.jpg

Òåêñò

Partially restricted (1)
Airspace
restricted (2)
Others’
restrictions (5)
No restriction (8)

Figure 16
11 Conflict Zones With Medium or High
Indications of Likelihood of Attack Without
Airspace Restrictions
https://c.radikal.ru/c27/2102/57/caf7c2292eac.jpg

Òåêñò

Restricted by
the state (1)
Partially
restricted (1)
Others’
restrictions (5)
No restrictions (4)

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population rather than the security of the civil aviation. Indeed, looking at the publicly available sources, U.N. Security
Council resolutions and/or the introduction of no-fly zones,
no information was found referring to the protection of
civil aviation whenever airspace was restricted or closed.
Finding 5: The analysis of selected conflict zones over
the period of 1990‒2014 identified that whenever a
state closed or restricted its own airspace above FL 250,
or such a restriction was imposed by a third party, the
predominant concerns were the security of military operations and of the population rather than the security
of civil aviation.
In the studied sample, there were eight cases in which an
entity (the sovereign state or a third party) introduced
partial or full airspace restrictions. These restrictions were
for the conflict zones “Bosnian war, 1992‒1997,” “Croatian
war, 1991‒1995,” “Iraq war, 1991,” “Iraq war, 2003-2011,”
“Kosovo, Allied Force, 1999,” “Libya, 2011,” “Slovenia,
1991” and “Armenia-Azerbaijan.”
Two sets of overall indication of likelihood of attack
above FL 250 for these conflict zones were compared. These
two sets of assessment include one that factors in the civil
aviation traffic volume for the situation after introducing
the airspace restrictions (if any), and the other that assesses
the situation as if airspace restrictions were not in effect.
This comparison reveals that in six of the eight cases in
which airspace restrictions were introduced, the assessed

Figure 17
Eight Cases of Airspace Restrictions
https://c.radikal.ru/c01/2102/39/1f27066a2d72.jpg

Òåêñò

Likelihood
remained high (1)
Likelihood
remained low (1)
Likelihood reduced
from high to low
(6)

likelihood of attack against civil aviation was reduced
considerably. (See Figure 17)
The likelihood of attack for the conflict zone “Slovenia,
1991” without airspace restrictions was assessed as low,
and because of that, it can be argued that the restrictions
were not necessary for the purpose of protecting civil
aircraft at cruising altitudes above FL 250.

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5. Airspace Restrictions Over and Around Eastern Ukraine

5.1. Objectives of the Airspace Restrictions Analysis
After setting the wider background of the inquiry by characterising the historical occurrences of hostile events and
the state practices of airspace management over conflict
zones, the Foundation focused on airspace restrictions in
Ukraine and the Russian Federation immediately prior to
the downing of Flight MH17. The Foundation considered
studying the airspace restrictions timeline and specifics to
be important because restrictions are the main outcome of
airspace restrictions decision-making, which is the study
focus of this inquiry.
5.2. Scope of the Airspace Restrictions Analysis
The scope of the airspace restrictions analysis is defined as
follows:
• The analysed information is from NOTAMs.
• Information was sourced and analysed for the period
from 1 March 2014 up to and including the moment of complete closure of the respective airspace
subsequent to the downing of Flight MH17 on 17
July 2014.
• The respective airspace is contained in the Dnepropetrovsk Flight Information Region (FIR), UKDV,
and in the Rostov-on-Don FIR, URRV (which borders the UKDV FIR).
• The specific focus of the analysis is on the restrictions above FL 250.
5.3. Technical Background
5.3.1. Background
The situation at the time involved several airspace restrictions, introduced by both Ukraine and Russian Federation, of airspace above and around eastern Ukraine. These
airspace restrictions were promulgated with NOTAMs.
To introduce the technical context of airspace restrictions,
what follows is a short overview of airspace restrictions as
a measure and of NOTAMs as aeronautical information
products that are often used to promulgate this measure.
5.3.2. Airspace Sovereignty, FIRs and ATS Routes
States have sovereignty over the airspace above their
territory and exercise complete and exclusive control of
it. As provided in reference [2]: “For reasons of safety, a
state may impose limitations on the use of its airspace and
determine along which routes and at which minimum
altitude aircraft may fly within that airspace. The managing state can also partly or fully close its airspace if this is
necessary for safety reasons.”
Global airspace is divided by ICAO into nine air navigation regions. Airspace is divided further into FIRs. An FIR

is an airspace of defined dimensions within which flight
information service and alerting service are provided. The
nature and scope of air traffic services, which include the
flight information service and alerting service, are defined
in Annex 11 to the Convention on International Civil
Aviation, Air Traffic Services. In some cases, FIRs are split
vertically into lower and upper sections. The lower section
remains referred to as an FIR, but the upper portion is
referred to as an upper information region (UIR).
Each FIR is managed by a controlling authority that
has responsibility for ensuring that air traffic services are
provided to the aircraft flying within it. Smaller countries
may have one FIR in the airspace above them and larger
countries may have several. Airspace over international
waters (e.g., the oceans) is typically divided into FIRs that
are delegated to controlling authorities within countries
that border it.
Airspace within an FIR is usually divided into airspace
structural elements. The airspace structural elements vary
in their function, size and classification. Classifications
determine the rules for flying within a part of airspace and
whether it is controlled or uncontrolled airspace. Aircraft
flying in controlled airspace must follow instructions from
air traffic controllers. Air traffic control’s main purpose
is preventing collisions between aircraft. Aircraft flying
in uncontrolled airspace are not provided with air traffic
control services.
One airspace structural element, particularly important for flights overflying a given territory, is an air traffic
services (ATS) route.
An ATS route is a specified route designed for channelling the flow of traffic as necessary for the provision of air
traffic services. ATS routes serve a purpose similar to that
of roads on the ground. ATS routes are also used to plan
the trajectory of flights that are recorded in flight plans.
Flight plans are documents filed by a pilot or flight
dispatcher prior to departure which indicate the airplane’s
planned route or flight path. Flight plan format is specified in ICAO Doc 4444, “Air Traffic Management.” Flight
plans, among other things, have to ensure that the planned
airplane flight trajectory respects all airspace constraints,
including airspace restrictions known at the time the flight
plan is filed.
5.3.3. Airspace Restrictions
Airspace restrictions can be introduced by sovereign states
at different time horizons and different levels of airspace
management.
Published airspace restrictions, as part of airspace
management practices, are normally promulgated through
Aeronautical Information Publications (AIPs) or through

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NOTAMs. AIPs are generally used for information of
a permanent or lasting nature, as well as for temporary
changes of long duration while NOTAMs are used to disseminate information of a temporary nature and of short
duration or when operationally significant permanent
changes, or temporary changes of long duration, are made
at short notice.
Airspace restriction for a given airspace can be effectively introduced by describing the three-dimensional boundaries of the airspace and specifying the time validity of the
restrictions. In the same way, wherever only ATS routes
are used for civil aviation flight planning, the restriction of
the ATS route segments that pass through a given airspace
has the same effect as restricting the airspace volume.
Airspace restrictions are a key constraint for flight planning. Aircraft operators or specialised third parties plan the
flight trajectory considering the constraints imposed by the
airspace restrictions. Flight planning is often performed
with the help of specialised software applications that process the requested flight trajectory though the airspace and
other constraints to find an optimal flight trajectory.
5.3.4. NOTAM
A NOTAM is a notice containing information concerning
the establishment, condition or change in any aeronautical
facility, service, procedure or hazard, the timely knowledge of which is essential to personnel concerned with
flight operations. NOTAMs do not include extensive text
and/or graphics.
NOTAMs are issued by national authorities for a number of reasons, such as:
• Hazards such as air shows, parachute jumps and glider or micro-light flying;
• Flights by important people such as heads of state;
• Closed runways, taxiways, etc;
• Unserviceable radio navigational aids;
• Military exercises with resulting airspace restrictions;
• Unserviceable lights on tall obstructions;
• Temporary erection of obstacles near airfields (e.g.,
cranes).
For reasons of conciseness and precision, NOTAMs are
encoded, although the code is usually sufficiently self-evident to allow the user to identify a hazard.
NOTAMs are communicated by the issuing agency using the fastest available means to all addressees for whom
the information is assessed as being of direct operational
significance, and who would not otherwise have at least
seven days’ prior notification.
Flight crew access to current NOTAMs during preflight planning may be via airport flight briefing facilities
provided for all aircraft operators or via an alternative

system provided by their company to provide access only
to NOTAMS relevant to their intended flight.
NOTAMs are published using all upper-case letters.
NOTAMs comprise up to eight items, which are identified
by letters: Q, A, B, C, D, E, F, and G. Individual items are
often omitted if unnecessary or inappropriate.
The NOTAM first line contains NOTAM identification
(series, sequence number and year of issue), the type of
operation (NEW, REPLACE, or CANCEL), as well as a
reference to a previously issued NOTAM, if relevant.
Item Q contains a comprehensive description of information contained within the NOTAM. It consists of up to
eight fields separated by a stroke (/). This information is
repeated in the text of the NOTAM. Some authorities do
not include Item Q in NOTAMs.
The first field of Item Q is the abbreviation of the FIR
for which the subject of the information in the NOTAM
is located geographically. For example, “UKDV” identifies
the Dnipropetrovsk FIR.
The second field in Item Q is the NOTAM code. All
NOTAM code groups contain a total of five letters and the
first letter is always the letter Q. The second and third letters
identify the subject, and the fourth and fifth letters denote
the status or condition of the subject. For example, QARLC
code identifies “subject ATS routes” (“AR”) “closed” (“LC”);
QRTCA code identifies “temporary restricted area” (“RT”)
“activated” (“CA”); QRAXX identifies “airspace reservation”
(“RA”) “in plain language“ (“XX”). Another example of Q
code from the studied NOTAMs is QFALT that identifies
“aerodromes” (“FA”) “limited to…” (“LT”).
The third field in Item Q identifies the subject traffic.
For example, “IV” identifies instrument (“I”) and visual
(“V”) traffic.
The fourth field in Item Q identifies the purpose of the
NOTAM. For example, “NBO” identifies: (N), NOTAM
selected for the immediate attention of flight crewmembers; (B) , NOTAM of operational significance selected
for preflight information bulletin entry; and (O), NOTAM
concerning flight operations.
The fifth field in Item Q identifies the scope of the NOTAM. For example, “E” identifies en-route scope.
The sixth and seventh fields in item Q identify lower
and upper limits. The lower and upper limits are only
expressed in flight levels (FL) and express the actual
vertical limits of the airspace area without the addition of
buffers. In the case of navigation warnings and airspace
restrictions, values entered shall be consistent with those
provided under NOTAM Items F and G. For example,
“260/320” identifies lower and upper limits from FL 260
to FL 320. If the subject does not contain specific height
information, “000” is used for lower and “999” for upper
limits as default values.
The eighth field in Item Q identifies the coordinates and/
or the radius that defines the subject of the information in

41

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the NOTAM. For example, “4820N03716E119” identifies a
circle with centre 4820N and 03716E and radius of 119 nm
(220 km).
Item A is the 4-letter ICAO code for the location — the
affected aerodrome or FIR for the NOTAM.
Item B is the 10-figure group that indicates the year,
month, date and time at which any change to already
published information comes into force. Alternatively, the
date/time group may be written in plain language.
Item C is the 10-figure group giving the year, month,
date and time at which the NOTAM ceases to have effect.
Item C may be omitted if the information is permanent, or
“PERM” (permanent) or “UFN” (until further notice) may
be inserted.
Item D gives the schedule of dates and times when the
NOTAM will be active.
Item E describes, in plain language but using simple
abbreviations where appropriate, the nature of the event
that is the subject of the NOTAM. It is in English but can
be abbreviated.
Items F and G, when present, indicate the lower and
upper limit of activity of navigation warnings or airspace
restrictions. If the lower limit is ground level, Item F is
usually omitted, but “SFC” (surface) or “GRD” (ground)
may be inserted.
5.4. Analysis of the NOTAMs
The studied NOTAMs were extracted from the European
AIS Database (EAD) archive for the studied period (1
March 2014 up to and including the moment of complete closure of the respective airspace subsequent to the
downing of Flight MH17 on 17 July 2014). The selected
NOTAMs for URRV FIR and UKDV FIR, start from 01
January 2014 to make sure that NOTAMs that had been
created earlier and that were still valid after 01 March 2014
are also included in this extraction. The archive facility
has limited extraction capabilities as compared to the
production system for more recent periods. The initially
extracted files included all NOTAMs (i.e., the files were
not limited to those involving airspace restrictions above
FL 250) because it was not possible to make such a specific
extraction from the NOTAM archive. However, the NOTAM text allowed for more filtering to narrow the search
as needed for the scope of the analysis.

The search of NOTAMs for the studied period identified 291 NOTAMs for the Dnepropetrovsk UKDV FIR.
Of these NOTAMs, 96 concerned airspace restrictions.
Airspace restrictions above FL 250 were defined in 39
NOTAMs. Analysis of the geographical coverage of these
39 NOTAMs resulted in the final selection of 15 NOTAMs
that were analysed and for which an illustration map
was produced.
Similarly, the search of NOTAMs for the studied period
identified 1019 NOTAMs for the Rostov-on-Don FIR
URRV. Of these NOTAMs, 799 concerned airspace restrictions. Airspace restrictions above FL 250 were defined
in 37 NOTAMs. Analysis of the geographical coverage of
these 37 NOTAMs resulted in the final selection of two
NOTAMs that were analysed and for which an illustration
map was produced. The final 15 NOTAMs for UKDV
FIR and 2 NOTAMs for URRV FIR are represented in the
next sections.
5.5. Adopted Format for NOTAM Description
The 17 NOTAMs analysed are further described separately. Each NOTAM description is provided in a separate
subsection of this report that contains the NOTAM content, an illustration map of the restricted airspace elements
introduced by the NOTAM (where the illustration is
approximate and the maps cannot be used for navigation
or other purposes) and the description of the restrictions
the NOTAM introduces.
The description of the restrictions includes the validity of the NOTAM, the description of the restriction, the
description of any exemptions provided (e.g., for state
aircraft) and the altitude limits.
The restrictions promulgated by the studied NOTAMs
are two types — restricting ATS routes or restricting
three-dimensional area of airspace. The restricted ATS
routes are depicted on the illustration map as lines, and
the restricted areas are depicted as polygons.
The illustrations of the restrictions of the ATS routes use
different colours. These colours do not have any specific
significance and are only used to help the reader identify
similarity between the different restrictions. For example,
the illustrations of the restrictions of NOTAM A0942/14
and NOTAM A0820/14 depict a line in the same colour
that illustrate the same restricted ATS route.

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5.6. Ukraine Airspace Restrictions Timeline
5.6.1. NOTAM A0820/14, Issued on 24 April 2014
NOTAM content and illustration map

A0820/14 NOTAMN
Q) UKDV/QARLC/IV/NBO/E
/100/350/4915N03848E056
A) UKDV B) 1404260400 C) 1405081800
D) DAILY 0400-1800
E) SEGMENT ATS ROUTE MASOL-EDUGO-LUGAT T242
CLOSED.
FM 3050M AMSL UP TO FL350.

Restrictions
The NOTAM A0820/14 introduced restrictions:
• Valid from 0400 UTC on 26 April 2014 until 1800
UTC on 08 May 2014.
• For a defined segment of ATS route (MASOL-EDUGO-LUGAT T242).
• Closed daily from 0400 UTC until 1800 UTC.
• From 3050 m above mean sea level to FL 350
inclusive.

https://b.radikal.ru/b21/2102/bf/b08a81f6b199.jpg

Note: The Illustration is approximate

43

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5.6.2. NOTAM A0942/14, Issued on 05 May 2014
NOTAM content and illustration map

A0942/14 NOTAMN
Q) UKDV/QARLC/IV/NBO/E
/100/350/4915N03848E056
A) UKDV B) 1405120400 C) 1405201800
D) DAILY 0400-1800
E) SEGMENT ATS ROUTE MASOL-EDUGO-LUGAT T242
CLOSED.
FM 3050M AMSL UP TO FL350.

Restrictions
The NOTAM A0942/14 introduced restrictions:
• Valid from 0400 UTC on 12 May 2014 until 1800
UTC on 20 May 2014.
• For a defined segment of ATS route (MASOL-EDUGO-LUGAT T242).
• Closed daily from 0400 UTC until 1800 UTC.
• From 3050 m above mean sea level to FL 350
inclusive.

https://a.radikal.ru/a21/2102/09/ca0929dd132c.jpg

Note: The Illustration is approximate

44

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5.6.3. NOTAM A1219/14, Issued on 02 June 2014
NOTAM content and illustration map

A1219/14 NOTAMN
Q) UKDV/QARLC/IV/NBO/E
/000/280/4839N03844E069
A) UKDV B) 1406021540 C) 1406031700
E) SEGMENTS ATS ROUTES CLOSED:
LS-DIMAB A83
TOMKA-NALEM L32
AMPUL-LUGAT M996
LUSIG-GUKOL M996
LS-IRBAT P851
EDUGO-NALEM T242
DW-LUGAT W533
TOROS-BESPI W533
BELOL-LUGAT W633
FROM SFC TO FL280.

Restrictions
The NOTAM A1219/14 introduced restrictions:
• Valid from 1540 UTC on 02 June 2014 until 1700
UTC on 03 June 2014.
• For defined segments of ATS routes (LS-DIMAB
A83, TOMKA-NALEM L32, AMPUL-LUGAT
M996, LUSIG-GUKOL M996, LS-IRBAT P851,
EDUGO-NALEM T242, DW-LUGAT W533,
TOROS-BESPI W533, BELOL-LUGAT W633).
• Closed.
• From surface to FL 280 inclusive.

https://c.radikal.ru/c18/2102/18/cd177707b881.jpg

Note: The Illustration is approximate

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5.6.4. NOTAM A1229/14, Issued on 03 June 2014
NOTAM content and illustration map

A1229/14 NOTAMN
Q) UKDV/QARLC/IV/NBO/E
/000/280/4839N03844E069
A) UKDV B) 1406031801 C) 1406041700
E) SEGMENTS ATS ROUTES CLOSED:
LS-DIMAB A83
TOMKA-NALEM L32
AMPUL-LUGAT M996
LUSIG-GUKOL M996
LS-IRBAT P851
EDUGO-NALEM T242
DW-LUGAT W533
TOROS-BESPI W533
BELOL-LUGAT W633
FROM SFC TO FL280.

Restrictions
The NOTAM A1229/14 introduced restrictions:
• Valid from 1801 UTC on 03 June 2014 until 1700
UTC on 04 June 2014.
• For defined segments of ATS routes (LS-DIMAB
A83, TOMKA-NALEM L32, AMPUL-LUGAT
M996, LUSIG-GUKOL M996, LS-IRBAT P851,
EDUGO-NALEM T242, DW-LUGAT W533,
TOROS-BESPI W533, BELOL-LUGAT W633).
• Closed.
• From surface to FL 280 inclusive.

https://c.radikal.ru/c01/2102/6b/e50dc953dae5.jpg

Note: The Illustration is approximate

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5.6.5. NOTAM A1231/14, Issued on 04 June 2014
NOTAM content and illustration map

A1231/14 NOTAMN
Q) UKDV/QARLC/IV/NBO/E
/000/280/4839N03844E069
A) UKDV B) 1406041200 C) 1406041700
E) SEGMENTS ATS ROUTES CLOSED:
LS-DIMAB A83
TOMKA-NALEM L32
LUSIG-GUKOL M996
LS-IRBAT P851
EDUGO-NALEM T242
TOROS-BESPI W533
BELOL-LUGAT W633.
FROM SFC TO FL280.

Restrictions
The NOTAM A1231/14 introduced restrictions:
• Valid from 1200 UTC on 04 June 2014 until 1700
UTC on 04 June 2014.
• For defined segments of ATS routes (LS-DIMAB
A83, TOMKA-NALEM L32, LUSIG-GUKOL
M996, LS-IRBAT P851, EDUGO-NALEM T242,
TOROS-BESPI W533, BELOL-LUGAT W633).
• Closed.
• From surface to FL 280 inclusive.

https://d.radikal.ru/d14/2102/34/6bf2694d98ae.jpg

Note: The Illustration is approximate

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5.6.6. NOTAM A1234/14, Issued on 04 June 2014
NOTAM content and illustration map

A1234/14 NOTAMN
Q) UKDV/QARLC/IV/NBO/E
/000/280/4910N03640E064
A) UKDV B) 1406041600 C) 1406052359
E) SEGMENTS ATS ROUTES CLOSED:
IRBAT-SODRA P851
TOMKA-KW L32
INSUM-LUSIG G476.
FROM SFC TO FL280.

Restrictions
• The NOTAM A1234/14 introduced restrictions:
• Valid from 1600 UTC on 04 June 2014 until 2359
UTC on 05 June 2014.
• For defined segments of ATS routes (IRBAT-SODRA
P851, TOMKA-KW L32, INSUM-LUSIG G476).
• Closed.
• From surface to FL 280 inclusive.

https://a.radikal.ru/a41/2102/5b/b628403a3960.jpg

Note: The Illustration is approximate

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5.6.7. NOTAM A1236/14, Issued on 04 June 2014
NOTAM content and illustration map

A1236/14 NOTAMR A1231/14
Q) UKDV/QARLC/IV/NBO/E
/000/280/4839N03844E069
A) UKDV B) 1406041640 C) 1406052359
E) SEGMENTS ATS ROUTES CLOSED:
LS-DIMAB A83
TOMKA-NALEM L32
LUSIG-GUKOL M996
LS-IRBAT P851
EDUGO-NALEM T242
TOROS-BESPI W533
BELOL-LUGAT W633.
FROM SFC TO FL280

Restrictions
The NOTAM A1236/14 introduced restrictions:
• Valid from 1640 UTC on 04 June 2014 until 2359
UTC on 05 June 2014.
• For defined segments of ATS routes (LS-DIMAB
A83, TOMKA-NALEM L32, LUSIG-GUKOL
M996, LS-IRBAT P851, EDUGO-NALEM T242,
TOROS-BESPI W533, BELOL-LUGAT W633).
• Closed.
• From surface to FL 280 inclusive.

https://a.radikal.ru/a03/2102/61/9e2e9ef89d9f.jpg

Note: The Illustration is approximate

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5.6.8. NOTAM A1255/14, Issued on 05 June 2014
NOTAM content and illustration map

A1255/14 NOTAMN
Q) UKDV/QARLC/IV/NBO/E
/000/260/4829N03721E114
A) UKDV B) 1406060000 C) 1406302359
E) SEGMENTS ATS ROUTES CLOSED:
KHR-GOBUN A137 LS-TP A83
RUBES-FASAD B493 OLGIN-MASOL G476
KERTA-FASAD L140 LS-NALEM L32
DNP-GONED L69 PW-FASAD L984
DNP-TAMAK M70 KHR-KUBOK M987
LI-OLGIN M995 KHR-GUKOL M996
LS-LI P851 MASOL-LUGAT T242
PW-ELBAM W531 TOROS-KERTA W533
LI-FASAD W538 RUBES-KUBIR W546
ELBAM-OLGIN W617 GOBUN-LI W624
RUBES-LUGAT W633 DON-TAGAN W644.
FROM SFC TO FL260.

Restrictions
The NOTAM A1255/14 introduced restrictions:
• Valid from 0000 UTC on 06 June 2014 until 2359
UTC on 30 June 2014.
• For defined segments of ATS routes (KHR-GOBUN
A137 LS-TP A83, RUBES-FASAD B493 OLGIN-MASOL G476, KERTA-FASAD L140 LS-NALEM L32, DNP-GONED L69 PW-FASAD L984,
DNP-TAMAK M70 KHR-KUBOK M987, LI-OLGIN
M995 KHR-GUKOL M996, LS-LI P851 MASOLLUGAT T242, PW-ELBAM W531 TOROS-KERTA
W533, LI-FASAD W538 RUBES-KUBIR W546,
ELBAM-OLGIN W617 GOBUN-LI W624, RUBESLUGAT W633 DON-TAGAN W644).
• Closed.
• From surface to FL 260 inclusive.

https://b.radikal.ru/b02/2102/4c/fe9bf654cb6a.jpg

Note: The Illustration is approximate

50

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5.6.9. NOTAM A1256/14, Issued on 05 June 2014
NOTAM content and illustration map

A1256/14 NOTAMN
Q) UKDV/QRAXX/IV/NBO/W
/000/260/4833N03731E111
A) UKDV B) 1406060000 C) 1406302359
E) TEMPORARY RESERVED AREA BOUNDED BY
COORDINATES:
501900N 0364942E 490600N 0365000E 481520N
0360510E
475542N 0355136E 472200N 0363900E 465400N
0370500E
464700N 0373000E 465900N 0382000E 470642N
0381324E
THEN ALONG STATE BOUNDARY UNTIL POINT
501900N 0364942E.
AUTHORIZED FLIGHTS OF STATE ACFT OF UKRAINE.
FOR FLIGHTS OF CIVIL ACFT NEED HAVE PERMISSION
HEADQUARTERS OF ARMED FORCES UKRAINE NOT
LESS ONE DAY BEFORE FLIGHT.
F) SFC G) FL260)

Restrictions
• The NOTAM A1256/14 introduced restrictions:
• Valid from 0000 UTC on 06 June 2014 until 2359
UTC on 30 June 2014.
• For a defined by geographic coordinates area bordering Russian Federation.
• From surface to FL 260 inclusive.
• Not applicable for flights of state aircraft of Ukraine.
• Civil aircraft need permission to fly in the area from
the headquarter of the armed forces of Ukraine not
less than one day before the flight.

https://b.radikal.ru/b01/2102/05/d7348af893ca.jpg

Note: The Illustration is approximate

51

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5.6.10. NOTAM A1383/14, Issued on 26 June 2014
NOTAM content and illustration map

A1383/14 NOTAMN
Q) UKDV/QRAXX/IV/NBO/W
/000/260/4833N03731E111
A) UKDV B) 1407010000 C) 1407282359
E) TEMPORARY RESERVED AREA BOUNDED BY
COORDINATES:
501900N 0364942E 490600N 0365000E 481520N
0360510E
475542N 0355136E 472200N 0363900E 465400N
0370500E
464700N 0373000E 465900N 0382000E 470642N
0381324E
THEN ALONG STATE BOUNDARY UNTIL POINT
501900N 0364942E.
AUTHORIZED FLIGHTS OF STATE ACFT OF UKRAINE.
FOR FLIGHTS OF CIVIL ACFT NEED HAVE PERMISSION
HEADQUARTERS OF ARMED FORCES UKRAINE NOT
LESS
ONE DAY BEFORE FLIGHT.
F) SFC G) FL260

Restrictions
The NOTAM A1383/14 introduced restrictions:
• Valid from 0000 UTC on 01 July 2014 until 2359
UTC on 28 July 2014.
• For a defined by geographic coordinates area bordering Russian Federation.
• From surface to FL 260 inclusive.
• Not applicable for flights of state aircraft of Ukraine.
• Civil aircraft need permission to fly in the area from
the headquarters of the armed forces of Ukraine not
less than one day before the flight.

https://c.radikal.ru/c28/2102/f2/1b2a84475056.jpg

Note: The Illustration is approximate

52

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5.6.11. NOTAM A1384/14, Issued on 26 June 2014
NOTAM content and illustration map

A1384/14 NOTAMN
Q) UKXX/QARLC/IV/NBO/E /000/260/4829N03721E114
A) UKDV UKFV B) 1407010000 C) 1407282359
E) SEGMENTS ATS ROUTES CLOSED:
KHR-GOBUN A137 LS-TP A83
RUBES-FASAD B493 OLGIN-MASOL G476
KERTA-FASAD L140 LS-NALEM L32
DNP-GONED L69 PW-FASAD L984
DNP-TAMAK M70 KHR-KUBOK M987
LI-OLGIN M995 KHR-GUKOL M996
LS-LI P851 MASOL-LUGAT T242
PW-ELBAM W531 TOROS-KERTA W533
LI-FASAD W538 RUBES-KUBIR W546
ELBAM-OLGIN W617 GOBUN-LI W624
RUBES-LUGAT W633 DON-TAGAN W644.
FROM SFC TO FL260.

Restrictions
The NOTAM A1384/14 introduced restrictions:
• Valid from 0000 UTC on 01 July 2014 until 2359
UTC on 28 July 2014.
• For defined segments of ATS routes (KHR-GOBUN
A137 LS-TP A83, RUBES-FASAD B493 OLGIN-MASOL G476, KERTA-FASAD L140 LS-NALEM L32, DNP-GONED L69 PW-FASAD L984,
DNP-TAMAK M70 KHR-KUBOK M987, LI-OLGIN
M995 KHR-GUKOL M996, LS-LI P851 MASOLLUGAT T242, PW-ELBAM W531 TOROS-KERTA
W533, LI-FASAD W538 RUBES-KUBIR W546,
ELBAM-OLGIN W617 GOBUN-LI W624, RUBESLUGAT W633 DON-TAGAN W6440).
• Closed.
• From surface to FL 260 inclusive.

https://b.radikal.ru/b00/2102/ea/68c80c35a925.jpg

Note: The Illustration is approximate

53

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5.6.12. NOTAM A1492/14, Issued on 14 July 2014
NOTAM content and illustration map

A1492/14 NOTAMN
Q) UKDV/QRTCA/IV/BO /W
/260/320/4822N03807E095
A) UKDV B) 1407141800 C) 1408142359EST
E) TEMPO RESTRICTED AREA INSTALLED WITHIN FIR
DNIPROPETROVSK
BOUNDED BY COORDINATES:
495355N 0380155E 485213N 0372209E 480122N
0370253E
471352N 0365856E 465018N 0374325E 465900N
0382000E
470642N 0381324E THEN ALONG STATE BOUNDARY
UNTIL POINT 495355N 0380155E.
RESTRICTION NOT APPLIED FOR FLIGHTS OF STATE
ACFT OF UKRAINE.
F) FL260 G) FL320

Restrictions
The NOTAM A1492 introduced restrictions:
• Valid from 1800 UTC on 14 July 2014 until 2359
UTC on 14 August 2014 (estimated duration).
• For a defined by geographic coordinates area bordering Russian Federation.
• From FL 260 to FL 320 inclusive.
• Not applicable for flights of state aircraft of Ukraine.

https://d.radikal.ru/d22/2102/79/bb8e84f21521.jpg

Note: The Illustration is approximate

54

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5.6.13. NOTAM A1493/14, Issued on 14 July 2014
NOTAM content and illustration map

A1493/14 NOTAMN
Q) UKDV/QARLC/IV/NBO/E
/260/320/4820N03716E119
A) UKDV B) 1407141800 C) 1408142359EST
E) SEGMENTS OF ATS ROUTES CLOSED:
T242 NALEM MASOL M996 ABUGA GUKOL
G476 MASOL OLGIN W533 TOROS KUBIR
L32 NALEM KW P851 LS NESLO
A83 LS DIMAB L980 GANRA TAMAK
W538 GANRA FASAD W633 LUGAT MAKAK
L69 LAMIV GONED W644 DON GETBO
M70 BULIG TAMAK B493 PODOL FASAD
L984 BULIG FASAD W531 KOVIL PW
M136 MEBAM DON M995 OLGIN PENAK
L140 KOVIL FASAD.
FM FL260 UP TO FL320

Restrictions
The NOTAM A1493/14 introduced restrictions:
• Valid from 1800 UTC on 14 July 2014 until 2359
UTC on 14 August 2014.
• For defined segments of ATS routes (T242 NALEM
MASOL M996 ABUGA GUKOL, G476 MASOL OLGIN W533 TOROS KUBIR, L32 NALEM KW P851
LS NESLO, A83 LS DIMAB L980 GANRA TAMAK,
W538 GANRA FASAD W633 LUGAT MAKAK, L69
LAMIV GONED W644 DON GETBO, M70 BULIG
TAMAK B493 PODOL FASAD, L984 BULIG FASAD W531 KOVIL PW, M136 MEBAM DON M995
OLGIN PENAK, L140 KOVIL FASAD).
• Closed.
• From FL 260 to FL 320 inclusive.

https://c.radikal.ru/c28/2102/15/ab7dda244c39.jpg

Note: The Illustration is approximate

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5.6.14. NOTAM A1507/14, Issued on 17 July 2014 after the Downing of Flight MH17
NOTAM content and illustration map

A1507/14 NOTAM
Q) UKDV/QRTCA/IV/BO /W
/320/660/4822N03807E095 A) UKDV
B) 1407171500 C) 1408172359EST
E) TEMPO RESTRICTED AREA INSTALLED WITHIN FIR
DNIPROPETROVSK BOUNDED BY COORDINATES :
495355N 0380155E 485213N 0372209E 480122N
0370253E 471352N 0365856E 465018N 0374325E
465900N 0382000E 470642N 0381324E THEN ALONG
STATE BOUNDARY UNTIL POINT 495355N 0380155E.
RESTRICTION NOT APPLIED FOR FLIGHTS OF STATE
ACFT OF UKRAINE.
F) FL320 G) UNL

Restrictions
The NOTAM A1507/14 introduced restrictions:
• Valid from 1500 UTC on 17 July 2014 until 2359
UTC on 17 August 2014.
• For a defined by geographic coordinates area bordering Russian Federation.
• Closed.
• From FL 320 to unlimited.
• Not applicable for flights of state aircraft of Ukraine.

https://b.radikal.ru/b20/2102/07/79ccf91c30d3.jpg

Note: The Illustration is approximate

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5.6.15. NOTAM A1517/14, Issued on 17 July 2014 after the Downing of Flight MH17
NOTAM content and illustration map

A1517/14 NOTAM
Q) UKXX/QRTCA/IV/BO /W /000/660/4801N03731E117
A) UKDV UKFV
B) 1407180005 C) 1408172359
E) TEMPO RESTRICTED AREA BOUNDED BY
COORDINATES: 495428N 0380202E 490600N
0365000E 481520N 0360510E 475542N 0355136E
460809N 0370518E 464700N 0373000E 465900N
0382000E 470642N 0381324E
THEN ALONG STATE BOUNDARY UNTIL POINT
495428N 0380202E CLOSED.
F) SFC G) UNL

Restrictions
The NOTAM A1517/14 introduced restrictions:
• Valid from 0005 UTC on 18 July 2014 until 2359
UTC on 17 August 2014.
• For a defined by geographic coordinates area bordering Russian Federation.
• Closed.
• From surface to unlimited

https://b.radikal.ru/b20/2102/07/79ccf91c30d3.jpg

Note: The Illustration is approximate

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5.7. Russian Federation Airspace Restrictions Timeline
5.7.1. NOTAM V6158/14, Issued on 17 July 2014
NOTAM content and illustration map

V6158/14 NOTAMN
Q)URRV/QARLC/IV/NBO/E/000/530/4818N04023E095
A) URRV B) 1407170000 C) 1408312359EST
E) DUE TO COMBAT ACTIONS ON THE TERRITORY OF
THE UKRAINE NEAR THE STATE BORDER WITH THE
RUSSIAN FEDERATION AND THE FACTS OF FIRING
FROM THE TERRITORY OF THE UKRAINE TOWARDS
THE TERRITORY OF RUSSIAN FEDERATION, TO ENSURE
INTL FLT SAFETY, ATS RTE SEGMENTS CLSD AS FLW:
A100 MIMRA - ROSTOV-NA-DONU VOR/DME (RND),
B145 KANON - ASMIL, G247 MIMRA - BAGAYEVSKIY
NDB (BA), A87 TAMAK - SARNA, A102 PENEG - NALEM,
A225 GUKOL - ODETA, A712 TAMAK - SAMBEK
NDB (SB), B493 FASAD - ROSTOV-NA-DONU VOR/
DME (RND), B947 TAMAK - ROSTOV-NA-DONU VOR/
DME (RND), G118 LATRI - BAGAYEVSKIY NDB (BA),
G534 MIMRA - TOROS, G904 FASAD - SUTAG, R114
BAGAYEVSKIY NDB (BA)-NALEM.
SFC - FL320.
DEP FM/ARR TO ROSTOV-NA-DONU AD TO/FM
MOSCOW FIR CARRIED OUT ALONG ATS RTE G128
KONSTANTINOVSK NDB (KA) - MOROZOVSK VOR/
DME (MOR) AND R11 MOROZOVSK VOR/DME (MOR) -
BUTRI ON ASSIGNED FL.
DEP FM ROSTOV-NA-DONU AD TO DNEPROPETROVSK
FIR CARRIED OUT ALONG ATS RTE A102
KONSTANTINOVSK NDB (KA) - NALEM ON FL340 AND
ABOVE.
ARR TO ROSTOV-NA-DONU AD FM DNEPROPETROVSK
FIR CARRIED OUT ALONG ATS RTE A712 TAMAK -
SAMBEK NDB (SB) THEN DCT KONSTANTINOVSK NDB
(KA) ON FL330 AND ABOVE.
F)SFC G)FL530)

https://a.radikal.ru/a07/2102/66/e6545dacedfc.jpg

Note: The Illustration is approximate

Restrictions
The NOTAM V6158/14 introduced restrictions:
• Valid from 0000 UTC on 17 July 2014 until 2359
UTC on 31 August 2014.
• Reason provided was “due to combat actions on the
territory of Ukraine near the state border with the
Russian Federation and the facts of firing from the
territory of the Ukraine towards the territory of Russian Federation, to ensure international flight ATS
routes closed as follows:
– A100 MIMRA - ROSTOV-NA-DONU VOR/
DME (RND), B145 KANON - ASMIL, G247
MIMRA - BAGAYEVSKIY NDB (BA), A87
TAMAK - SARNA, A102 PENEG - NALEM,
A225 GUKOL - ODETA, A712 TAMAK
- SAMBEK NDB (SB), B493 FASAD - ROSTOV-NA-DONU VOR/DME (RND), B947
TAMAK - ROSTOV-NA-DONU VOR/DME

(RND), G118 LATRI - BAGAYEVSKIY NDB
(BA), G534 MIMRA - TOROS, G904 FASAD
- SUTAG, R114 BAGAYEVSKIY NDB (BA)-NALEM — from surface to FL320.
– Departures from/arrivals to Rostov-on-Don
arrivals departures to/from Moscow FIR carried
out along ATS route G128 KONSTANTINOVSK
NDB (KA) - MOROZOVSK VOR/DME (MOR)
AND R11 MOROZOVSK VOR/DME (MOR) -
BUTRI — on assigned FL.
– Departures from Rostov-on-Don arrival departures to Dnepropetrovsk FIR carried out along
ATS route A102 KONSTANTINOVSK NDB
(KA) - NALEM on FL340 and above.
– Arrivals to Rostov-on-Don arrivals departures
from Dnepropetrovsk FIR carried out along ATS
route 712 TAMAK - SAMBEK NDB (SB) then

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direct to THEN DCT KONSTANTINOVSK
NDB (KA) on FL330 and above.
• From surface to FL 530.
Items F and G as well as the information in the sixth and
seventh fields in item Q identify lower and upper limits
as surface and FL 530. This, in fact, means total closure
of the airspace. Item E, which describes the nature of the
restriction, in fact describes four different restrictions and
specifies different altitude limits for each of them. Specifically, for the restrictions affecting ATS routes that are in
the area bordering Ukraine, the first part of item E defines
surface to FL 320 as height limits

As provided in reference [3] about the information in
items F and G:
“These items are normally applicable to navigation warnings or airspace restrictions and are usually part of the PIB
entry.”
It is to be noted that reference [3] was published in 2018
and prior to that, the referred provisions were not with the
status of “procedures.” For example, reference [4], published in 2003, provides:
“Items F) and G). These items are normally applicable
to navigation warnings or airspace restrictions, but can be
used for any other applicable subjects, and are usually part
of the PIB entry.”

[3] International Civil Aviation Organisation, Doc 10066
“Procedures for Air Navigation Services, Aeronautical
Information Management,” First Edition 2018, Montreal, Canada
[4] International Civil Aviation Organisation, Doc 8126
“Aeronautical Information Services Manual,” Sixth
Edition 2003, Montreal, Canada

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5.7.2. NOTAM A2681/14, Issued on 16 July 2014
NOTAM content and illustration map

A2681/14 NOTAMN
Q) URRV/QFALT/IV/NBO/A /000/999/4716N03949E005
A) URRR B) 1407170000 C) 1408312359EST
E) DUE TO COMBAT ACTIONS ON THE TERRITORY OF
THE UKRAINE NEAR THE STATE BORDER WITH THE
RUSSIAN FEDERATION AND THE FACTS OF FIRING
FROM THE TERRITORY OF THE UKRAINE TOWARDS
THE TERRITORY OF RUSSIAN FEDERATION, TO ENSURE
INTL FLT SAFETY DEP FM/ARR TO ROSTOV-NA-DONU
AD TO/FM MOSCOW FIR CARRIED OUT ALONG ATS
RTE:
G128 KONSTANTINOVSK NDB (KA) - MOROZOVSK
VOR/DME (MOR) AND R11 MOROZOVSK VOR/DME
(MOR) - BUTRI ON ASSIGNED FL.
DEP FM ROSTOV-NA-DONU AD TO DNEPROPETROVSK
FIR CARRIED OUT ALONG ATS RTE A102
KONSTANTINOVSK NDB (KA) - NALEM ON FL340 AND
ABOVE.
ARR TO ROSTOV-NA-DONU AD FM DNEPROPETROVSK
FIR CARRIED OUT ALONG ATS RTE A712 TAMAK -
SAMBEK NDB (SB) THEN DCT KONSTANTINOVSK NDB
(KA) ON FL330 AND ABOVE.

https://a.radikal.ru/a06/2102/cc/e8fc36796ff8.jpg

Note: The Illustration is approximate

Restrictions
The NOTAM A2681/14 introduced restrictions:
• Valid from 0000 UTC on 17 July 2014 until 2359
UTC on 31 August 2014.
• Reason provided was “due to combat actions on the
territory of Ukraine near the state border with the
Russian Federation and the facts of firing from the
territory of the Ukraine towards the territory of Russian Federation, to ensure international flight safety
departures from/arrivals to Rostov-na-Donu.”
• For arrivals and departures to/from Moscow FIR that
are carried out along the ATS routes:
– G128 KONSTANTINOVSK NDB (KA) -
MOROZOVSK VOR/DME (MOR) AND R11

MOROZOVSK VOR/DME (MOR) - BUTRI -
Restricted on assigned FL.
– Departures from Rostov-on-Dan arrivals and
departures to Dnepropetrovsk FIR carried out
along ATS route A102 KONSTANTINOVSK
NDB (KA) — NALEM — on FL340 and above.
– Arrivals to Rostov-on-Dan arrivals and departures from Dnepropetrovsk FIR carried out along
ATS route A712 TAMAK - SAMBEK NDB (SB)
then direct to KONSTANTINOVSK NDB (KA)
— on FL 330 and above.

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5.8. Summary of the Airspace Restriction Timeline
Prior to the Downing of Flight MH17
This section describes the timeline of 13 selected NOTAMs for UKDV FIR and two NOTAMs for URRV FIR
that were issued prior to the downing of Flight MH17.
Each NOTAM was described separately previously in this
report but, in Table 5 below, we provide an overall summary of the timeline. There are two NOTAMs for UKDV
FIR that are included in the individual descriptions of
NOTAMs previously in this report, but which are not included here because they were issued after the downing of
Flight MH17 and have no relevance to its trajectory. Those
two NOTAMs promulgated closure of the airspace.
Each of the selected NOTAMs is described with the date
on which it was issued, its identification number, period of

validity, reference to the restriction it imposes and the upper and lower limits of the restriction. Additionally, in the
table, there are three more descriptors for each NOTAM
— concerning the overlap of the Flight MH17 trajectory
with the NOTAM restriction. The horizontal overlap
descriptor whether the Flight MH17 trajectory passed
through the geographical region of the restriction, without
considering the altitude or the time of the restriction. For
example, NOTAM A1256/14 close an area that overlaps
with the Flight MH17 planned trajectory and because of
that, the horizontal overlap descriptor is “yes.” Similarly,
the altitude and time overlap descriptors specify whether
the altitude and time validity of the restriction concern the
Flight MH17 trajectory. In the case of NOTAM A1256/14,
the restricted airspace upper limit is FL 260 and the time

Table 5
NOTAM Restrictions Timeline

https://d.radikal.ru/d31/2102/5a/3940143e0f4a.jpg

ATS = air traffic services; FL = flight level; n/k = not known; NOTAM = notice to airmen; UTC = coordinated universal time


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