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The reasons for restricting their airspace, reported by
the Russian Federation in an answer to a Foundation
directed question, cited statements made by the country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs prior to the downing of
Flight MH17. These statements refer only to low altitude
threats from artillery.
Responding to a Foundation query regarding the
reason for selecting the upper limit for the airspace restriction, the Russian Federation acknowledged that the
airspace was closed up to FL 320 and that this altitude
limit was the same as the one indicated in the Ukrainian
NOTAMs A1492/14 and A1493/14 and that “Rosaviatsiya did not have any other, more or less credible information provided by the Ukrainian side, which would allow
to forecast the vertical limit of the hazard zone for civil
aviation flights.”
In response to the Foundation’s query on this matter, the
Russian Federation indicated that authorities did not have
any information regarding the presence of air defence
equipment on the territory of Ukraine that was not controlled by the armed forces of the Ministry of Defence of
Ukraine and which could strike targets in the Rostov-onDon FIR above FL 250.
The Foundation did not obtain satisfactory clarifications
from the Russian Federation about any of the Russian
authorities’ knowledge of intent to attack with air defence
equipment that was not controlled by government forces
and which could have reached the respective airspace in
Rostov-on-Don FIR above FL 250 in eastern Ukraine.
The Foundation’s research did not find any other
instances where Russian Federation authorities publicly
acknowledged before or after the downing of Flight MH17
the presence in eastern Ukraine of air defence systems
capable of reaching an altitude of greater than FL 320.
Finding 8: This inquiry did not find sufficient facts that
Russian Federation authorities responsible for analysing security risk levels in civil aviation airspace and
those establishing restriction of airspace in a conflict
zone98 were aware of a threat to civil aviation before the
downing of Flight MH17.
With regard to any Russian Federation potential threat
awareness, the information identified in the public space,
and already listed in the discussion about Ukraine, was
also available to the Russian Federation, including the social media posts. However, it is assumed in this study that
the Russian Federation did not have access to intercepted
telephone conversations and intelligence information
available to the Ukrainian authorities

Another set of facts from the public information is
associated with the JIT99 that points to a request by the
armed non-state forces for a Buk and to the movement
of a Buk in the Russian Federation and Ukraine. The
JIT reported100: “After an extensive and labor-intensive
comparative investigation, in which many BUK-TELARs
were involved, the JIT has come to the conclusion that the
BUK-TELAR that shot down flight MH17 comes from the
53rd Anti Aircraft Missile Brigade, or the 53rd Brigade from
Kursk in the Russian Federation. This 53rd Brigade is a unit
of the Russian armed forces.” This JIT conclusion has been
disputed and denied by the Russian Federation.
However, the purpose of the present analysis is to identify if the relevant authorities responsible for risk analysis
and decision-making could have had a proper threat
awareness irrespective of the origin of the of the weapon
system. The Foundation did not identify sufficient facts
that such threat awareness existed to relevant authorities.
Apart from the discussion on the accessibility of the
information, another important aspect of the Russian Federation risk analysis and decision-making can be deduced
from the Russian Federation standard procedure and decision-making protocols. In response to a Foundation inquiry
relating to standard procedures and threat knowledge, the
Russian Federation stated: “Threats to air traffic safety in the
Rostov-on-Don FIR stemmed from the dangerous activities
in the area of responsibility of the adjacent Dnepropetrovsk
FIR.” Further, it was stated that “[a]ll possible risk factors for
an unintended attack should be considered” and that “[s]uch
preparations should include an assessment of the risk to civil
aircraft operations due to a military conflict or incidents of
unlawful interference with civil aviation.”
After acknowledging the source of the threat in the
neighbouring territory and, in general the need to consider all risk factors, the Russian Federation did not acknowledge the responsibility to determine the risk factors for
an unintentional attack in Russian Federation airspace
originating from the close proximity to the conflict zone
in the eastern Ukraine. With respect to the issue of which
authorities were responsible, the response was: “The state
responsible for compliance with the rules for the introduction of restrictions on the use of airspace over an armed
conflict zone (Ukraine, in relation to the MH17 crash).”
Finding 9: This inquiry did not find sufficient facts that
Russian Federation authorities responsible for analysing security risk levels in civil aviation airspace and
those establishing restriction of airspace in a conflict
zone101 could have had a proper awareness of the
high-altitude threat.

98 Responsible authorities are defined in detail in Section 7.2.
99 The JIT, comprised of representatives from the Netherlands, Australia, Malayasia, Belgium and Ukraine, is conducting a criminal investigation into
the crash.
100 https://www.prosecutionservice.nl/topic … -24-5-2018
101 Responsible authorities are defined in detail in Section 7.2

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Appendix A
Conflict zones case studies


Bosnian war 1992–1997

A. Parties:
1. Conflict between states.
2. Conflict between non-state armed groups and
state(s) or civil wars.
3. Conflict between non-state armed groups.

Conflict between non-state armed groups and state(s) or civil wars.
Conflict between states.
The conflicting parties in the Bosnian war were: Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Herzeg-Bosnia, Republika Srpska, Serbian Krajina, Western Bosnia, FR Yugoslavia.
NATO Operation Deny Flight and Operation Deliberate Force.

B. Armed conflict scale and/or tensions:
1. Terrorism and/or international political tension.
2. Insurgency (small-scale military activities) and/
or medium increasing political tension.
3. Large-scale military activities and/or
heightened international political tension

Large-scale military activities and/or heightened international political
tension.
There were more than 20 large military operations or battles during the war,
including the siege of Sarajevo.
On 29 August 1995 Operation Deliberate Force was launched by NATO involving
400 aircraft and over 3,515 sorties. It continued until 20 September 1995.

C. Military air transport activities:
1. Military air transport activities not reported.
2. Occasional use of aircraft to transport ground
troops or military equipment.
3. More than occasional use of aircraft to transport
ground troops or military equipment by at least
one party

More than occasional use of aircraft to transport ground troops or military
equipment by at least one party (such aircraft may be more difficult to
distinguish from civil aircraft, particularly where operating near airways
and close to civil aircraft cruising altitudes).
In 1992 the United Sates recognized the independence of Bosnia and Herzegovina
and soon after began airlifting food and supplies from Italy.
United Nations forces took control of the Sarajevo airport and authorized an
international airlift of humanitarian supplies.
United States launched Operation Provide Promise on 3 July 1992 to provide
airlift.

D. Military air combat activities:
1. No military air combat activities.
2. Small-scale (occasional) military air combat
activities and/or some activities above FL 250.
3. Large- to medium-scale military air combat
activities and/or regular activities above FL 250

Large- to medium-scale military air combat activities.
Military combat activities involving multiple reginal parties and NATO.

E. Known attacks:
1. Conflict area without publicly reported security
incidents involving military and civil aviation.
2. Conflict area with single security-related
reported incident/accident involving military
(or civil) aviation.
3. Conflict area with multiple reported securityrelated incidents/accidents involving military
(or civil) aviation.

Conflict area with multiple reported security-related incidents/accidents
involving military (or civil) aviation.
On 3 September 1992 an Italian Air Force (Aeronautica Militare Italiana) G.222
was shot down when approaching Sarajevo airfield while conducting a United
Nations relief mission. It crashed 18 miles (29 km) from the airfield.
On 28 February 1994, six Republika Srpska Air Force J-21 Jastreb jets were
engaged, and four of them shot down, by NATO warplanes from the U.S. Air Force
On 16 April 1994 a Sea Harrier of the UK Royal Navy 801 Naval Air Squadron,
operating from the aircraft carrier HMS Ark Royal, was brought down by a Igla-1
surface-to-air missile fired by the Army of Republika Srpska while attempting to
bomb two Bosnian Serb tanks over Gorazde.
On 28 May 1995 a Mi-17 was shot down by a missile from an 2K12 Kub mobile
SAM launcher. The attack killed the Bosnian Minister Irfan Ljubijankić, a few other
politicians, and the helicopter’s Ukrainian crew.
On 2 June 1995 a US Air Force F-16C was shot down at 6000 meters altitude by a
missile launch from an 2K12 Kub mobile SAM launcher.
On 30 August 1995 a French Air Force Dassault Mirage 2000N was shot down by
SAM-14 or DCA after bomb release on munition storage — Deny Flight mission.

F. Capability to attack by at least one party:
1. No information for capability to attack with
range above FL 250.
2. Air-to-air missiles launched from fighter aircraft
(and no SAMs).
3. Long-range surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) that
can hit an aircraft at cruising level.

Long-range surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) that can hit an aircraft at cruising
altitude.
2K12 Kub mobile SAM. The 2K12 “Kub” (NATO reporting name: SA-6 “Gainful”)
mobile surface-to-air missile system is a Soviet low to medium-level air defence
system designed to protect ground forces from air attack.

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G. Capability to differentiate between civil and
military aircraft:
1. Differentiation supported by radar, electronic
identification and non-cooperative target
recognition systems measuring signature using
acoustic and thermal radiation, radio emissions,
radar techniques.
2. Differentiation supported by radar and
electronic identification (e.g., identification,
friend or foe (IFF), secondary surveillance radar
(SSR).
3. Differentiation supported only by radar tracks.

Differentiation supported only by radar tracks — for some of the armed
forces.

H. SAM/AAM operators’ experience and chain of
command:
1. Regular forces.
2. SAMs in the possession of irregular military
forces OR an absence of robust SAM/AAM
command and control procedures for
authorizing launch.
3. SAMs in the possession of irregular military
forces AND an absence of robust SAM/
AAM command and control procedures for
authorizing launch

SAMs in the possession of poorly trained, inexperienced personnel OR
an absence of robust command and control procedures for authorizing
launch.
The SAMs (2K12 Kub mobile SAM) were in possession of the Army of Republika
Srpska forces.

I. Known intent to attack:
1. Known intent to attack military aircraft.
2. Known intent to attack civil aircraft.
3. Communication of intent and a plan to attack
civil aircraft or actual attack against civil aircraft

Known intent to attack military aircraft.
See the incidents and accidents reported in section E.

J. Civil aircraft operations over or close to conflict
zone (with and without the airspace restrictions
if any):
1. No or occasional traffic.
2. Small to moderate traffic volume (for example
restricted to arrivals and departures to airports).
3. Considerable traffic volume, including
international overflights

No or occasional traffic after the restrictions.
Before the airspace closure the airspace of Bosnia and Herzegovina was
characterized by considerable overflight traffic volume, with overflights from
Turkey, Greece, Middle East and Asia Pacific to Central and Western Europe.

Airspace Closure

Airspace restrictions
Describes when airspace restrictions were introduced,
what airspace they affected and how they evolved
over time including:
• Restrictions by the responsible for the airspace
sovereign authority (the state).
• Restrictions by others — third parties and/or
neighboring states.

1. Restrictions by the responsible for the airspace sovereign authority (the
state)
None
2. Others
Note:
Closure of the whole airspace for civil flights occurred in 1992.
Airspace below FL285 was closed from 1997.

Reasons for airspace restrictions
Describes the reasons for airspace restrictions,
weapons known to be in the area and their range/
capabilities, what traffic was vulnerable, known or
suspected intent to attack civil aviation and whether
there was concern about unintentional attack

Reason for airspace closure of Bosnia and Herzegovina was the war, which started
in Bosnia and Herzegovina 6 April 1992. Bosnia and Herzegovina independence
was proclaimed in March 1992. There were no aviation authorities in Bosnia and
Herzegovina who would issue any official document.
The former Yugoslavia had SAMs and there was threat of their use. In addition,
NATO was in the air.
Signing of the Dayton peace accord in November 1995 enabled negotiation on
limited opening of Bosnia and Herzegovina airspace — upper airspace above
FL 285 in 1997. Lower airspace was closed at NATO’s request. NATO used this
airspace for their operations.

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Bosnian war 1992–1997 (continued)

Decision-making
Describes the source(s) of the threat information;
who made the decision regarding the restrictions and
with whom was the decision coordinated; was the
decision-making process different from the normal or
standard airspace decision-making process.

The first step in the closure of airspace was done indirectly. Namely, the two
neighboring states, the former Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) (successor
Serbia), and Croatian aviation authorities stopped the traffic to/from Bosnia and
Herzegovina. This essentially closed the airspace for international traffic.
In March 1993, the United Nations passed Resolution 816, which banned all
flights over Bosnia-Herzegovina not authorized by the United Nations. It also
authorized NATO to enforce the ban on military flights by shooting down
violators. At the request of UN Security Council, NATO declared ‘Operation Deny
Flight’ and a ‘no fly zone’.
In 1997 FRY, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and NATO signed agreement on the
opening of the airspace above FL285 for commercial air traffic. It was agreed that
ATM would be provided by Belgrade and Zagreb ACCs, while Search and Rescue
was provided by Bosnia and Herzegovina. Operational boundary for the traffic
above FL285 was on the old FIR boundary between Belgrade and Zagreb FIR. It
was 40NM west of Sarajevo and Mostar. The whole airspace below FL 285 was
controlled by NATO Stabilization Forces (SFOR).

Promulgation
Describes how the restrictions were published,
number of the NOTAMs if available, AIS

FRY and Croatia published NOTAMs (references not available).
NATO published information as well (references not available).
Opening of the airspace above FL285 was done by the NOTAM coordinated
between FRY, Croatia and supported by the assistance of EUROCONTROL
(references not available)

Notes
Other relevant information

LOAs were signed between all actors in the opening of Bosnia and Herzegovina
airspace for civilian traffic.
References:
U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, Yugoslavia: Military Dynamics of a Potential
Civil War, March 1991
U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, Combat forces in former Yugoslavia, July 1993
Daniel L. Haulman, Air Force historical Research Agency, MANNED AIRCRAFT
LOSSES OVER THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA, 1994–1999, October 2009
Jaffe S., Airspace Closure and Civil Aviation, 2015

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Croatian war 1991–1995
Likelihood of attack indicators

A. Parties:
1. Conflict between states.
2. Conflict between non-state armed groups and
state(s) or civil wars.
3. Conflict between non-state armed groups.

Conflict between non-state armed groups and state(s) or civil wars.
The conflicting parties in the Croatian war from 1991 until 1995 were Croatia,
Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, Serbian Autonomous Oblast of Krjina, Serbian
Autonomous Oblast of Eastern Slavonia, Baranja and Western Syrmia, Republika
Srpska, Serbian Autonomous Oblast of Western Slavonia.
The war lasted from 31 March 1991 until 12 November 1995.
This conflict was fought by the defence forces of the Croatian government initially
against the Yugoslav Army (JNA) until 1992 and local Serbian forces formed as the
self-declared Republic of Serbian Krajina (RSK) until 1995

B. Armed conflict scale and/or tensions:
1. Terrorism and/or international political tension.
2. Insurgency (small-scale military activities) and/
or medium increasing political tension.
3. Large-scale military activities and/or
heightened international political tension.

Insurgency or small-scale military activities.
The Yugoslav People’s Army tried to keep Croatia within Yugoslavia by occupying
all of Croatia.
After this was unsuccessful self-proclaimed proto-state Republic of Serbian
Krajina (RSK) was established within Croatia.
After the ceasefire of January 1992 and international recognition of the Republic
of Croatia as a sovereign state the United Nations Protection Force (UNPROFOR)
was deployed.
The military activities became largely intermittent in the following three years.
In 1995, Croatia launched two major offensives known as Operation Flash and
Operation Storm, and effectively the war was ended.

C. Military air transport activities:
1. Military air transport activities not reported.
2. Occasional use of aircraft to transport ground
troops or military equipment.
3. More than occasional use of aircraft to transport
ground troops or military equipment by at least
one party).

Occasional use of aircraft to transport ground troops or military
equipment.

D. Military air combat activities:
1. No military air combat activities.
2. Small-scale (occasional) military air combat
activities and/or some activities above FL 250.
3. Large- to medium-scale military air combat
activities and/or regular activities above FL 250

Small-scale (occasional) military air combat activities.

E. Known attacks:
1. Conflict area without publicly reported security
incidents involving military and civil aviation.
2. Conflict area with single security-related
reported incident/accident involving military
(or civil) aviation.
3. Conflict area with multiple reported securityrelated incident/accident involving military (or
civil) aviation.

Conflict area with multiple reported security-related incidents/accidents
involving military (or civil) aviation.
On 23 August 1991 Croatian forces shot down two Yugoslav G-2 Galeb fighter
aircraft using shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles.
On 27 December 1991, the Croatian An-2 was shot down during a bombing
mission by a SA-6 SAM missile by Republika Srpska.
On 7 January 1992, an Italian Army Agusta-Bell AB-206L LongRanger helicopter,
operating as a European Community Monitor Mission and carrying five European
Community observers was downed by a Yugoslav Air Force Mikoyan-Gurevich
MiG-21,
On 31 July 1994 Air Ukraine An-26 was shot down and crashed

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Croatian war 1991–1995 (continued)

F. Capability to attack by at least one party:
1. No information for capability to attack with
range above FL 250.
2. Air-to-air missiles launched from fighter aircraft
(and no SAMs).
3. Long-range surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) that
can hit an aircraft at cruising level

Long-range surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) that can hit an aircraft at cruising
altitude.
Federal Republic of Yugoslavia:
At the start of the war, the Yugoslav national air defence force possessed more
than 100 search radars, eight battalions of SA-2s, six battalions of SA-3s, one
battalion of SA-5s, four battalions of SA-6/11s, and 15 regiments of anticraft guns.
For support of army, there were also SA-9, SA-13 mobile IR-guided SAMs, and
thousands of SA-7 and SA-16 shoulder-fired SAMs.
S-75 Dvina (NATO reporting name SA2) is a Soviet-designed, high-altitude air
defence system with engagement altitude of 82,000ft.
S-125 Neva/Pechora (NATO reporting name SA3) mobile surface-to-air missile
system is a Soviet-made SAM system with engagement altitude of 59,000 ft.
S-200 (NATO reporting name SA-5) is a very long range, medium-to-high altitude
SAM system to defend large areas from bomber attack or other strategic aircraft.
It has an engagement altitude of 130,000 ft.
2K12 Kub mobile SAM. The 2K12 “Kub” (NATO reporting name: SA-6 “Gainful”)
low- to medium-level air defence system designed to protect ground forces from
air attack with engagement altitude, depending on the modification, of up to
46,000ft.
Other capabilities for lower altitudes: 9K32 Strela-2 (SA-7), 9K31 Strela-1 (SA-9),
9K35 Strela-10 (SA-13), 9K34 Strela-3 (SA-14), 9K310 Igla-1 (SA-16) and mobile
AAA batteries (multiple types).
Republika Srpska
2K12 Kub mobile SAM. The 2K12 “Kub” (NATO reporting name: SA-6 “Gainful”)
mobile surface-to-air missile system is a Soviet low to medium-level air defence
system designed to protect ground forces from air attack.
Croatian Army:
The Croatian Army was developed and equipped during the war

G. Capability to differentiate between civil and
military aircraft:
1. Differentiation supported by radar, electronic
identification and non-cooperative target
recognition systems measuring signature using
acoustic and thermal radiation, radio emissions,
radar techniques.
2. Differentiation supported by radar and
electronic identification (e.g., identification,
friend or foe (IFF), secondary surveillance radar
(SSR).
3. Differentiation supported only by radar tracks.

Differentiation supported only by radar tracks.

H. SAM/AAM operators’ experience and chain of
command:
1. Regular forces.
2. SAMs in the possession of irregular military
forces OR an absence of robust SAM/AAM
command and control procedures for
authorizing launch.
3. SAMs in the possession of irregular military
forces AND an absence of robust SAM/
AAM command and control procedures for
authorizing launch.

SAMs in the possession of poorly trained, inexperienced personnel OR
an absence of robust command and control procedures for authorizing
launch.

I. Known intent to attack:
1. Known intent to attack military aircraft.
2. Known intent to attack civil aircraft.
3. Communication of intent and a plan to attack
civil aircraft or actual attack against civil aircraft.

Known intent to attack military aircraft.
See the incidents and accidents reported in section E.

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Croatian war 1991–1995 (continued)

J. Civil aircraft operations over or close to conflict
zone (with and without the airspace restrictions
if any):
1. No or occasional traffic.
2. Small to moderate traffic volume (for example
restricted to arrivals and departures to airports).
3. Considerable traffic volume, including
international overflights

Small to moderate traffic volume.
Considerable traffic volume before the restrictions.

Airspace Closure

Airspace restrictions
Describes when airspace restrictions were introduced,
what airspace they affected and how they evolved
over time including:
• Restrictions by the responsible for the airspace
sovereign authority (the state).
• Restrictions by others — third parties and/or
neighboring states.

1. Restrictions by the responsible for the airspace sovereign authority (the
state)
None
2. Others
Partial restriction.
Croatian airspace was closed for eight months, starting from August 1991
preceded on 25 June 1991 by a declaration of independence by Croatia.

Reasons for airspace restrictions
Describes the reasons for airspace restrictions,
weapons known to be in the area and their range/
capabilities, what traffic was vulnerable, known or
suspected intent to attack civil aviation and whether
there was concern about unintentional attack.

References not found

Decision-making
Describes the source(s) of the threat information;
who made the decision regarding the restrictions and
with whom was the decision coordinated; was the
decision-making process different from the normal or
standard airspace decision-making process.

References not found

Promulgation
Describes how the restrictions were published,
number of the NOTAMs if available, AIS.

References not found

Notes
Other relevant information

References:
U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, Yugoslavia: Military Dynamics of a Potential
Civil War, March 1991
Adria Airways Kronika 1991
U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, Combat forces in former Yugoslavia, July 1993
Daniel L. Haulman, Air Force historical Research Agency, MANNED AIRCRAFT
LOSSES OVER THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA, 1994–1999, October 2009

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Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)
Likelihood of attack indicators

A. Parties:
1. Conflict between states.
2. Conflict between non-state armed groups and
state(s) or civil wars.
3. Conflict between non-state armed groups.

Conflict between non-state armed groups.
Second Congo War, pitting Congolese forces against rebels and soldiers backed
by Uganda and Rwanda, ended in 2002/2003. In 2013, a UN offensive force and
Congolese army defeated rebel group M23 Movement. However, more than 100
armed groups, such as the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), which was driven
out of Uganda in the late 1990s, are believed to operate in the eastern region of
the DRC. ADF has pledged allegiance to ISIL (ISIS) but researchers say there is no
evidence of close collaboration. More than 16,000 UN peacekeepers are stationed
in the country as part of what is described as a stabilization mission. There also is
tension with neighbouring Rwanda.

B. Armed conflict scale and/or tensions:
1. Terrorism and/or international political tension.
2. Insurgency (small-scale military activities) and/
or medium increasing political tension.
3. Large-scale military activities and/or
heightened international political tension

Insurgency or small-scale military activities.
DRC military is primarily ground-based. DRC military and UN Peacekeepers are
battling insurgent groups in eastern DRC.

C. Military air transport activities:
1. Military air transport activities not reported.
2. Occasional use of aircraft to transport ground
troops or military equipment.
3. More than occasional use of aircraft to transport
ground troops or military equipment by at least
one party).

Occasional use of aircraft to transport ground troops or military
equipment.
DRC military currently has about a dozen transport aircraft.
UN peacekeeping force has 11 fixed wing and 30 rotary wing aircraft.

D. Military air combat activities:
1. No military air combat activities.
2. Small-scale (occasional) military air combat
activities and/or some activities above FL 250.
3. Large- to medium-scale military air combat
activities and/or regular activities above FL 250

No military air combat activities.
Insurgents not known to have aircraft. DRC forces have six fixed wing and eight
rotary wing attack aircraft, but most combat activities seem restricted to ground
operations.

E. Known attacks:
1. Conflict area without publicly reported security
incidents involving military and civil aviation.
2. Conflict area with single security-related
reported incident/accident involving military
(or civil) aviation.
3. Conflict area with multiple reported securityrelated incident/accident involving military (or
civil) aviation.

Conflict area with single reported security-related incident/accident
involving military (or civil) aviation.
In Oct. 1998, a 727 crashed after reportedly being struck by a MANPADS while inflight. Various accounts put death toll at 40 or 41. (In a 1999 incident, a Fokker F27
was struck by gunfire and a possible RPG while parked at an airport.)

F. Capability to attack by at least one party:
1. No information for capability to attack with
range above FL 250.
2. Air-to-air missiles launched from fighter aircraft
(and no SAMs).
3. Long-range surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) that
can hit an aircraft at cruising level.

No information about capability to attack with range above FL 250
DRC military has 53 “rocket projectors,” which are most likely RPGs.

G. Capability to differentiate between civil and
military aircraft:
1. Differentiation supported by radar, electronic
identification and non-cooperative target
recognition systems measuring signature using
acoustic and thermal radiation, radio emissions,
radar techniques.
2. Differentiation supported by radar and
electronic identification (e.g., identification,
friend or foe (IFF), secondary surveillance radar
(SSR).
3. Differentiation supported only by radar tracks

NA

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Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) (continued)

H. SAM/AAM operators’ experience and chain of
command:
1. Regular forces.
2. SAMs in the possession of irregular military
forces OR an absence of robust SAM/AAM
command and control procedures for
authorizing launch.
3. SAMs in the possession of irregular military
forces AND an absence of robust SAM/
AAM command and control procedures for
authorizing launch.

Regular forces, primarily ground forces, and no evidence of SAMs.

I. Known intent to attack:
1. Known intent to attack military aircraft.
2. Known intent to attack civil aircraft.
3. Communication of intent and a plan to attack
civil aircraft or actual attack against civil aircraft.

Know intent to attack military aircraft.
Assume that insurgents/rebels would attack DRC military aircraft if opportunity
presented itself.

J. Civil aircraft operations over or close to conflict
zone (with and without the airspace restrictions
if any):
1. No or occasional traffic.
2. Small to moderate traffic volume (for example
restricted to arrivals and departures to airports).
3. Considerable traffic volume, including
international overflights.

Moderate traffic volume, mainly restricted to arrivals and departures.
Most traffic seems to be internal or with other countries in the region.

Airspace Closure

Airspace restrictions
Describes when airspace restrictions were introduced,
what airspace they affected and how they evolved
over time including:
• Restrictions by the responsible for the airspace
sovereign authority (the state).
• Restrictions by others — third parties and/or
neighboring states.

1. Restrictions by the responsible for the airspace sovereign authority (the
state)
None.
2. Others
None.
Note:
DRC has not issued any NOTAMs referring to the conflict.
FAA previously has issued warnings to U.S. operators advising them to make sure
they are informed about the current situation before flying in that area, but there
are no current (June 2020) warnings active.
EASA does not currently have any Conflict Zone Information Bulletins active
regarding the DRC.

Reasons for airspace restrictions
Describes the reasons for airspace restrictions,
weapons known to be in the area and their range/
capabilities, what traffic was vulnerable, known or
suspected intent to attack civil aviation and whether
there was concern about unintentional attack.

References not found.

Decision-making
Describes the source(s) of the threat information;
who made the decision regarding the restrictions and
with whom was the decision coordinated; was the
decision-making process different from the normal or
standard airspace decision-making process

References not found.

Promulgation
Describes how the restrictions were published,
number of the NOTAMs if available, AIS.

References not found.

Notes
Other relevant information

In 2015, DRC signed an agreement with Harris Corp. to upgrade the country’s ATC
system.

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Egypt (Sinai)
Likelihood of attack indicators

A. Parties:
1. Conflict between states.
2. Conflict between non-state armed groups and
state(s) or civil wars.
3. Conflict between non-state armed groups.

Conflict between non-state armed groups and state(s) or civil wars.
Ongoing conflict pitting Egyptian armed forces, including army, air force and
police, against IS of Iraq and Levant (ISIL) and Wilayah Sinai. Wilayat Sinai
emerged as a terrorist organization in the Sinai Peninsula following a popular
uprising and subsequent overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak in 2011.
In November 2014, Wilayat Sinai declared its allegiance to the Islamic State
and has since claimed responsibility for numerous attacks, including an attack
on a mosque that killed more than 300 people, the April 2017 attack on Coptic
churches that killed at least 44 people, the December 2016 attack on a Coptic
chapel in Cairo that killed at least 25 people, and the October 2015 downing (with
a planted IED) of a Russian A321 that killed all 224 people aboard.

B. Armed conflict scale and/or tensions:
1. Terrorism and/or international political tension.
2. Insurgency (small-scale military activities) and/
or medium increasing political tension.
3. Large-scale military activities and/or
heightened international political tension.

Insurgency (small-scale military activities) and/or medium increasing
political tension.
In addition to attacks referenced in A., two coordinated attacks in one day in Oct.
2014 killed 33 Egyptian security personnel in the Sinai Peninsula. Rocket propelled
grenades were used in one of the attacks.
Scale and pace of operations increased in 2018 during government offensive prior
to presidential election.
Scale of conflict has been influenced by pressure from other States, including the
U.S. and Israel.

C. Military air transport activities:
1. Military air transport activities not reported.
2. Occasional use of aircraft to transport ground
troops or military equipment.
3. More than occasional use of aircraft to transport
ground troops or military equipment by at least
one party).

More than occasional use of aircraft to transport ground troops or military
equipment
Egypt has a more than 40 C-130Hs and C-295 cargo transports, as well as smaller
utility aircraft. Use likely dictated by launching of govt. offensives and/or in
response to attacks by insurgents.

D. Military air combat activities:
1. No military air combat activities.
2. Small-scale (occasional) military air combat
activities and/or some activities above FL 250.
3. Large- to medium-scale military air combat
activities and/or regular activities above FL 250

Large- to medium-scale military air combat activities and/or regular
activities above FL 250
Egyptian AF has a range of fighters (including F-16s, Mirages, Rafales and MiG-
29s) and attack helicopters and has been accused of using air launched cluster
bombs in Sinai.
Media reports include a number of references to air attacks, including one that
killed eight Mexican tourists.
There also have been reports of Israeli warplanes attacking ISIL in Sinai with the
secret approval of Egypt; Egypt has denied the reports.

E. Known attacks:
1. Conflict area without publicly reported security
incidents involving military and civil aviation.
2. Conflict area with single security-related
reported incident/accident involving military
(or civil) aviation.
3. Conflict area with multiple reported securityrelated incident/accident involving military (or
civil) aviation

Conflict area with multiple reported security-related incidents/accidents
involving military (or civil) aviation.
In addition to claimed IED attack on a Russian airliner in 2015, current FAA
background information says in June 2015 ISIS fired rockets toward El Gora
Airport (HEGR) in northern Sinai, fired at Egyptian military aircraft with small
arms and used MANPADS to shoot down a military helicopter flying at low
altitude.
In late 2013, the Dutch government informed Dutch carriers about a threat
specifically targeting civil aviation.
Although MANPADS have not been used to target civil aircraft in the Sinai,
extremists/militants could potentially do so at any time with little or no warning,
says FAA.

F. Capability to attack by at least one party:
1. No information for capability to attack with
range above FL 250.
2. Air-to-air missiles launched from fighter aircraft
(and no SAMs).
3. Long-range surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) that
can hit an aircraft at cruising level.

Long-range surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) that can hit an aircraft at cruising
level.
Egyptian navy has ships equipped with French-made VL (vertically launched)-
MICA SAMs that can reach 30,000 ft
Egyptian military also has long-range, Russian-made SAMs and a large fleet of a
fighter aircraft, including F-16s, Mirages, Rafales and MiG-29s.

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Egypt (Sinai) (continued)

G. Capability to differentiate between civil and
military aircraft:
1. Differentiation supported by radar, electronic
identification and non-cooperative target
recognition systems measuring signature using
acoustic and thermal radiation, radio emissions,
radar techniques.
2. Differentiation supported by radar and electronic identification (e.g., identification, friend
or foe (IFF), secondary surveillance radar (SSR).
3. Differentiation supported only by radar tracks.

Differentiation supported by radar, electronic identification and noncooperative target recognition systems measuring signature using acoustic
and thermal radiation, radio emissions, radar techniques.
Egyptian military has differential capability. Unknown for ISIL.

H. SAM/AAM operators’ experience and chain of
command:
1. Regular forces.
2. SAMs in the possession of irregular military
forces OR an absence of robust SAM/AAM
command and control procedures for
authorizing launch.
3. SAMs in the possession of irregular military
forces AND an absence of robust SAM/
AAM command and control procedures for
authorizing launch.

Regular forces
Egypt has a modern, well-equipped military. Scattered media reports allege that
ISIS/ISIL may possess a few SAMs, but that has not been confirmed.

I. Known intent to attack:
1. Known intent to attack military aircraft.
2. Known intent to attack civil aircraft.
3. Communication of intent and a plan to attack
civil aircraft or actual attack against civil aircraft.

Communication of intent and a plan to attack civil aircraft or actual attack
against civil aircraft.
ISIL laid claim to the Oct. 2015 downing of a Russian airliner with an IED planted
on board, which, if true, demonstrates an intent to attack civil aircraft.

J. Civil aircraft operations over or close to conflict
zone (with and without the airspace restrictions
if any):
1. No or occasional traffic.
2. Small to moderate traffic volume (for example
restricted to arrivals and departures to airports).
3. Considerable traffic volume, including
international overflights.

No information available

Airspace Closure

Airspace restrictions
Describes when airspace restrictions were introduced,
what airspace they affected and how they evolved
over time including:
• Restrictions by the responsible for the airspace
sovereign authority (the state).
• Restrictions by others — third parties and/or
neighboring states.

1. Restrictions by the responsible for the airspace sovereign authority (the
state)
None
2. Others
None
Note:
Airspace restrictions and warnings regarding the Cairo FIR (bellow FL 250/260),
particularly involving the northern Sinai region, have been issued since 2014 by
Egypt, EASA, Germany the U.S. and U.K.
EASA Conflict Zone Information Bulletin current in effect (June 2020)
FAA KICZ NOTAM A0040/20 in effect until March 2021

Reasons for airspace restrictions
Describes the reasons for airspace restrictions,
weapons known to be in the area and their range/
capabilities, what traffic was vulnerable, known or
suspected intent to attack civil aviation and whether
there was concern about unintentional attack.

A since cancelled EASA SIB advised against operating lower than 25,000 ft
AGL because of a threat from “dedicated aircraft weaponry.” Germany advised
operators not to plan and conduct flights below FL260 “due to potentially
hazardous situation within FIR Cairo; also warned of potential risk during takeoff/
landing at all north Sinai airports within FIR Cairo.
Current FAA NOTAM says: “plan to exercise extreme caution during flight
operations due to ongoing fighting between military forces and extremist/
militant elements and the continuing extremist threat to civil aviation, which
involves a variety of anti-aircraft-capable weapons, including MANPADS, antitank missiles, small-arms fire, and indirect fire weapons, such as mortars and
rockets targeting aircraft and Sinai airports. “

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Egypt (Sinai) (continued)

Decision-making
Describes the source(s) of the threat information;
who made the decision regarding the restrictions and
with whom was the decision coordinated; was the
decision-making process different from the normal or
standard airspace decision-making process.

Promulgation
Describes how the restrictions were published,
number of the NOTAMs if available, AIS.

FAA KICZ NOTAM A0040/20
EASA CZIB-2017-09R5

103

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Georgia-Russia 2008
Likelihood of attack indicators

A. Parties:
1. Conflict between states.
2. Conflict between non-state armed groups and
state(s) or civil wars.
3. Conflict between non-state armed groups.

Conflict between non-state armed groups and state(s) or civil wars.
The conflicting parties in the Georgia-Russia war in 2008 were Georgia, Russia and
the Russian-backed self-proclaimed republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
The war lasted from 7 until 12 of August 2008.
This conflict took place in the Transcaucasia region.

B. Armed conflict scale and/or tensions:
1. Terrorism and/or international political tension.
2. Insurgency (small-scale military activities) and/
or medium increasing political tension.
3. Large-scale military activities and/or
heightened international political tension.

Large scale military activities.
In July and August 2008 there was growing tension between Georgian and
South Ossetian Forces. On 8 August Georgia launched an air and land assault
on Tskhinvali. The Russians responded with air attacks on Georgian forces and
Russian forces entered South Ossetia.

C. Military air transport activities:
1. Military air transport activities not reported.
2. Occasional use of aircraft to transport ground
troops or military equipment.
3. More than occasional use of aircraft to transport
ground troops or military equipment by at least
one party).

Occasional use of aircraft to transport ground troops or military
equipment.

D. Military air combat activities:
1. No military air combat activities.
2. Small-scale (occasional) military air combat
activities and/or some activities above FL 250.
3. Large- to medium-scale military air combat
activities and/or regular activities above FL 250

Large- to medium-scale military air combat activities and/or regular
activities above FL 250.
After initial use Georgian forces almost completely withdrew their aircraft.

E. Known attacks:
1. Conflict area without publicly reported security
incidents involving military and civil aviation.
2. Conflict area with single security-related
reported incident/accident involving military
(or civil) aviation.
3. Conflict area with multiple reported securityrelated incident/accident involving military (or
civil) aviation.

Conflict area with multiple reported security-related incidents/accidents
involving military (or civil) aviation.
Russia lost six planes in Georgia. Friendly forces likely shot down three or four of
the six aircraft Russia lost in the war. “Identify Friend or Foe” (IFF) systems didn’t
work.
On 8 August 2008 Russian Su-25 was shot down after it came under friendly fire
from a MANPADS as it was overflying the positions of Russian troops in South
Ossetia.
On 9 August 2008 Russian Tu-22M3 heavy bomber was shot down by Georgian
Air Defenses (possibly by Buk-M1 SAM).
On 9 August 2008 Russian Su-24M frontline bomber was shot down from a
Georgian Air Defenses.
On 9 August 2008 Russian Su-25 was hit by a Georgian MANPADS that hit the
left engine; subsequently, while returning to base at an altitude of 1000 meters, a
second MANPADS missile struck the right engine, leaving the plane without thrust
and the aircraft crashed.
On 9 August 2008 Russian Su-25 attack aircraft was shot down by friendly fire. It
was hit from a Russian ZSU-23-4 Shilka self-propelled air defense artillery system
covering the Gufti bridge.
On 9 August 2008 Russian Su-24M frontline bomber aircraft was shot down by
friendly fire.
On 11 August 2008 Russian Su-25 attack aircraft was shot by friendly fire. SU-25
attacked by mistake Russian forces and Russian soldiers returned fire from manportable SAM systems. One of the missiles damaged the plane’s right engine,
which burst into flames. The aircraft was barely able to return to its base.

104

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Georgia-Russia 2008 (continued)

F. Capability to attack by at least one party:
1. No information for capability to attack with
range above FL 250.
2. Air-to-air missiles launched from fighter aircraft
(and no SAMs).
3. Long-range surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) that
can hit an aircraft at cruising level.

Long-range surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) that can hit an aircraft at cruising
altitude.
Russian Federation possess multiple types of surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) that
can hit an aircraft at cruising altitude. However, there were reports that Russian
military forces in the war did not have long-range surface-to-air missiles that
could be fired beyond the air-defence zones of an adversary.
At least one 9K37 Buk was captured by Russian and Russian backed forces during
the war.
Georgia:
9K37 Buk (NATO reporting name SA-11 Gadfly, SA-17 Grizzly) is a Soviet mediumrange SAM
designed to counter cruise missiles, smart bombs, fixed- and rotarywing aircraft,
and unmanned aerial vehicles. It has an engagement altitude of 20,000ft.
9K330 Tor (NATO reporting name SA-15 “Gauntlet”) is a Soviet all-weather low
to medium altitude, short-range surface-to-air missile system designed for
destroying airplanes, helicopters, cruise missiles, precision guided munitions,
unmanned aerial vehicles and short-range ballistic threats. It has an engagement
altitude of 46,000ft.
SPYDER (Surface-to-air PYthon and DERby) is an Israeli short and medium range
mobile air defence system. It has an engagement altitude of 30,000 ft or 52,000 ft
depending on the modification.
S-125 Neva/Pechora (NATO reporting name SA3) is Soviet-made a mobile SAM
system with engagement altitude of 59,000 ft.
Other capabilities include up to three Osa-AK/AKM SAM system batteries, a large
number of man-portable SAM systems, as well as a few Ñ-60 57-mm anti-aircraft
guns, ZU-23-2 twin 23-mm anti-aircraft guns, and ZSU-23-4 Shilka quad 23-mm
self-propelled anti-aircraft gun systems.

G. Capability to differentiate between civil and
military aircraft:
1. Differentiation supported by radar, electronic
identification and non-cooperative target
recognition systems measuring signature using
acoustic and thermal radiation, radio emissions,
radar techniques.
2. Differentiation supported by radar and
electronic identification (e.g., identification,
friend or foe (IFF), secondary surveillance radar
(SSR).
3. Differentiation supported only by radar tracks.

Differentiation supported by radar and electronic identification (e.g.
identification, friend or foe (IFF), SSR).
The Georgian air-defence early-warning and command-control tactical system
was linked via Turkey to a NATO Air Situation Data Exchange (ASDE), which
provided Georgia with intelligence during the conflict.

H. SAM/AAM operators’ experience and chain of
command:
1. Regular forces.
2. SAMs in the possession of irregular military
forces OR an absence of robust SAM/AAM
command and control procedures for
authorizing launch.
3. SAMs in the possession of irregular military
forces AND an absence of robust SAM/
AAM command and control procedures for
authorizing launch.

SAMs in the possession of irregular military forces OR an absence of robust
command and control procedures for authorizing launch.
At least one 9K37 Buk was captured by Russian and Russian-backed forces during
the war.

I. Known intent to attack:
1. Known intent to attack military aircraft.
2. Known intent to attack civil aircraft.
3. Communication of intent and a plan to attack
civil aircraft or actual attack against civil aircraft.

Known intent to attack military aircraft.
See the incidents and accidents reported in section E.

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Georgia-Russia 2008 (continued)

J. Civil aircraft operations over or close to conflict
zone (with and without the airspace restrictions
if any):
1. No or occasional traffic.
2. Small to moderate traffic volume (for example
restricted to arrivals and departures to airports).
3. Considerable traffic volume, including
international overflights.

Moderate traffic volume, mainly restricted to arrivals and departures.

Airspace Closure

Airspace restrictions
Describes when airspace restrictions were introduced,
what airspace they affected and how they evolved
over time including:
• Restrictions by the responsible for the airspace
sovereign authority (the state).
• Restrictions by others — third parties and/or
neighboring states.

1. Restrictions by the responsible for the airspace sovereign authority (the
state)
None
2. Others
No information found
No NOTAMs issued by Georgia regarding the conflict were identified. It is assumed
that airspace above FL 250 was not restricted to civil aviation.

Reasons for airspace restrictions
Describes the reasons for airspace restrictions,
weapons known to be in the area and their range/
capabilities, what traffic was vulnerable, known or
suspected intent to attack civil aviation and whether
there was concern about unintentional attack.

n/a

Decision-making
Describes the source(s) of the threat information;
who made the decision regarding the restrictions and
with whom was the decision coordinated; was the
decision-making process different from the normal or
standard airspace decision-making process.

n/a

Promulgation
Describes how the restrictions were published,
number of the NOTAMs if available, AIS.

n/a

Notes
Other relevant information

References:
“Air power in Russia’s Georgian campaign August 2008,” Pathfinder, Air power
development centre bulletin, October 2008
Pukhov R., The Tanks of August, Centre for Analysis of Strategies and
Technologies Moscow, Russia, 2010
Cohen A., Hamilton R., The Russian military and the Georgian war: lessons and
implications, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, June 2011

106

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Iraq war 1991
Likelihood of attack indicators

A. Parties:
1. Conflict between states.
2. Conflict between non-state armed groups and
state(s) or civil wars.
3. Conflict between non-state armed groups.

Conflict between non-state armed groups and state(s) or civil wars.
The Persian Gulf War, also known as “The Gulf War,” was a conflict between Iraq
and 34 other countries, led by the United States. The conflicting parties were: The
Allied Coalition Forces consisting of 34 nations and the Iraqi Armed Forces (Army,
Air Force, Navy, Iraqi Republican Guard).
The conflict started with the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq on August 2, 1990, with
the Allied Coalition military offensive beginning January 16, 1991. The official
ceasefire was declared February 28, 1991.102

B. Armed conflict scale and/or tensions:
1. Terrorism and/or international political tension.
2. Insurgency (small-scale military activities) and/
or medium increasing political tension.
3. Large-scale military activities and/or
heightened international political tension.

Large-scale military activities.
The Allied Coalition’s Operation Desert Storm involved approximately 750,000
troops. The coalition aerial strike-force comprised over 2,250 combat aircraft
(including 1,800 US aircraft). By contrast, the Iraqi Forces were estimated to be
1,000,000 personnel, having 934 combat-capable aircraft (including trainers) of
which 550 were operational.
The air campaign of the Gulf War was an extensive aerial bombing campaign.
The Coalition of the Gulf War flew over 100,000 sorties, dropping 88,500 tons of
bombs, widely destroying military and civilian infrastructure.103

C. Military air transport activities:
1. Military air transport activities not reported.
2. Occasional use of aircraft to transport ground
troops or military equipment.
3. More than occasional use of aircraft to transport
ground troops or military equipment by at least
one party).

Use of aircraft to transport ground troops or military equipment by at
least one party (such aircraft may be more difficult to distinguish from civil
aircraft, particularly where operating near airways and close to civil aircraft
cruising altitudes).
More than 145 C-130 aircraft deployed in support of Desert Shield/Desert Storm.
The C-130s flew 46,500 sorties and moved more than 209,000 people and 300,000
tons of supplies within the theater. C-141 aircraft operated 8,536 strategic airlift
missions, followed by the C-5 with 3,770; the KC-10 with 379 and the C-9 with 209.
UK C-130, VC10 and L1011 Tristar also operated across the operational area.

D. Military air combat activities:
1. No military air combat activities.
2. Small-scale (occasional) military air combat
activities and/or some activities above FL 250.
3. Large- to medium-scale military air combat
activities and/or regular activities above FL 250

Military air combat activities.
Military combat activities involving the Allied Coalition and the Iraqi Air Force.

E. Known attacks:
1. Conflict area without publicly reported security
incidents involving military and civil aviation.
2. Conflict area with single security-related
reported incident/accident involving military
(or civil) aviation.
3. Conflict area with multiple reported securityrelated incident/accident involving military (or
civil) aviation.

Conflict area with multiple reported incidents/accidents involving military
(or civil) aviation.
Military armed conflict existed throughout the airspace. UNSCR 678 authorised
use of all necessary means to force Iraqi forces out of Kuwait after 15 Jan 1991.
Widely reported by international media.

F. Capability to attack by at least one party:
1. No information for capability to attack with
range above FL 250.
2. Air-to-air missiles launched from fighter aircraft
(and no SAMs).
3. Long-range surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) that
can hit an aircraft at cruising level.

Long-range surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) that can hit an aircraft at cruising
level.
Both parties in this conflict had the capability to hit civilian aircraft in the region
with SAM and air-to-air missiles.104


102 Mockaitis, Thomas R.: Iraq War Encyclopedia ABC-CLIO, 2013
103 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War_air_campaign
104 Mockaitis, Thomas R.: Iraq War Encyclopedia ABC-CLIO, 2015, pg.18

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Iraq war 1991 (continued)

G. Capability to differentiate between civil and
military aircraft:
1. Differentiation supported by radar, electronic
identification and non-cooperative target
recognition systems measuring signature using
acoustic and thermal radiation, radio emissions,
radar techniques.
2. Differentiation supported by radar and
electronic identification (e.g., identification,
friend or foe (IFF), secondary surveillance radar
(SSR).
3. Differentiation supported only by radar tracks.

Differentiation supported by radar and electronic identification (e.g.
identification, friend or foe (IFF), SSR).

H. SAM/AAM operators’ experience and chain of
command:
1. Regular forces.
2. SAMs in the possession of irregular military
forces OR an absence of robust SAM/AAM
command and control procedures for
authorizing launch.
3. SAMs in the possession of irregular military
forces AND an absence of robust SAM/
AAM command and control procedures for
authorizing launch.

Regular forces.
While the actual war lasted a brief time, there was evidence of command and
control breakdown of the Iraqi military in the latter stages of the conflict.

I. Known intent to attack:
1. Known intent to attack military aircraft.
2. Known intent to attack civil aircraft.
3. Communication of intent and a plan to attack
civil aircraft or actual attack against civil aircraft

Known intent to attack military aircraft.
An effective state of war existed through the period.

J. Civil aircraft operations over or close to conflict
zone (with and without the airspace restrictions
if any):
1. No or occasional traffic.
2. Small to moderate traffic volume (for example
restricted to arrivals and departures to airports).
3. Considerable traffic volume, including
international overflights.

Small to moderate traffic volume.
Several factors greatly reduced the amount of traffic in Iraqi airspace during the
wartime months. The combination of restrictions and, among other things, large
increases in insurance rates encouraged many operators to route around the
region.105

Airspace Closure

Airspace restrictions
Describes when airspace restrictions were introduced,
what airspace they affected and how they evolved
over time including:
• Restrictions by the responsible for the airspace
sovereign authority (the state).
• Restrictions by others — third parties and/or
neighboring states.

1. Restrictions by the responsible for the airspace sovereign authority (the
state)
No information found
2. Others
The Iraqi airspace had been severely restricted by a combination of sanctions
into/out of Iraq, as well as restrictions imposed by the UN regarding overflights. In
September of 1990, UN resolution 670 established restrictions of operations into
and out of Iraq, allowing only UN humanitarian operations.106
During the conflict, the Allied Command limited overflights to those above FL200
and restricted certain airways.
The two no-fly zones, one in the north and another in the south of Iraq, were
unilaterally created by the US, Britain and France soon after the 1991 Gulf War.
Iraq was banned from using all aircraft, including helicopters, in the air exclusion
zones.

105 Jafe, Steven D.: Airspace Closure and Civil Aviation, Routledge, 2015, pg. 177
106 https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/97522?ln=en

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Iraq war 1991 (continued)

Reasons for airspace restrictions
Describes the reasons for airspace restrictions,
weapons known to be in the area and their range/
capabilities, what traffic was vulnerable, known or
suspected intent to attack civil aviation and whether
there was concern about unintentional attack.

Military wartime operations area.

Decision-making
Describes the source(s) of the threat information;
who made the decision regarding the restrictions and
with whom was the decision coordinated; was the
decision-making process different from the normal or
standard airspace decision-making process.

No documentation of decisions by Iraqi government can be found. The airspace
limitations were driven by UN, Allied, US and European authorities. Certain
restrictions existed limiting traffic above FL200, with numerous sectors prohibited.

Promulgation
Describes how the restrictions were published,
number of the NOTAMs if available, AIS.

NOTAM and EUROCONTROL AIM.

Notes
Other relevant information

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Iraq war 2003–2011
Likelihood of attack indicators

A. Parties:
1. Conflict between states.
2. Conflict between non-state armed groups and
state(s) or civil wars.
3. Conflict between non-state armed groups.

Conflict between non-state armed groups and state(s) or civil wars.
The Iraq War, also known as the Second Gulf War or Operation Freedom, began
on 20 March 2003 when the U.S., joined by the U.K. and several coalition allies,
launched a “shock and awe” bombing campaign. In December of 2011, the US
announced “official withdrawal” of troops from Iraq.107
Conflict related to a destabilization of the nation and region continues to this day.

B. Armed conflict scale and/or tensions:
1. Terrorism and/or international political tension.
2. Insurgency (small-scale military activities) and/
or medium increasing political tension.
3. Large-scale military activities and/or
heightened international political tension

Large-scale military activities.
At the time of invasion, the Allied forces were comprised of 1801 aircraft and
approximately 767,000 troops. The overall number of sorties flown in the decade
of war is not available. However, there were a 20, 228 sorties flown during the
initial phases of the war between March 19 and April 18, 2003.
The status of the Iraqi Air Force was poorly documented in the open literature. The
capabilities of the Iraqi Forces were greatly impacted by the Gulf War and a total
of 390 aircraft were believed to be operational at the end of 2002.108
The International Institute for Strategic Studies estimated the Iraqi troops prior
to the 2003 invasion to number 538,000 (Iraqi Army 375,000, Iraqi Navy 2,000,
Iraqi Air Force 20,000 and air defense 17,000, the paramilitary Fedayeen Saddam
44,000, and Republican Guard 80,000.109

C. Military air transport activities:
1. Military air transport activities not reported.
2. Occasional use of aircraft to transport ground
troops or military equipment.
3. More than occasional use of aircraft to transport
ground troops or military equipment by at least
one party)

Use of aircraft to transport ground troops or military equipment by at
least one party (such aircraft may be more difficult to distinguish from civil
aircraft, particularly where operating near airways and close to civil aircraft
cruising altitudes).
A wide array of allied military transport aircraft numbering more than 800 were
deployed to support the invasion in 2003.
The Iraqi Air Force was not a factor in the conflict.

D. Military air combat activities:
1. No military air combat activities.
2. Small-scale (occasional) military air combat
activities and/or some activities above FL 250.
3. Large- to medium-scale military air combat
activities and/or regular activities above FL 250

Military air combat activities.
Large scale military air combat activities across Iraq and in neighbouring
countries and sea areas (not Syria or Iran).

E. Known attacks:
1. Conflict area without publicly reported security
incidents involving military and civil aviation.
2. Conflict area with single security-related
reported incident/accident involving military
(or civil) aviation.
3. Conflict area with multiple reported securityrelated incident/accident involving military (or
civil) aviation.

Conflict area with multiple reported incident/accident for military (or civil)
aviation.
Military conflict existed throughout the airspace, widely reported by international
media.

F. Capability to attack by at least one party:
1. No information for capability to attack with
range above FL 250.
2. Air-to-air missiles launched from fighter aircraft
(and no SAMs).
3. Long-range surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) that
can hit an aircraft at cruising level.

Long-range surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) that can hit an aircraft at cruising
level.
Both parties in this conflict had the capability to hit civilian aircraft in the region.
Coalition forces deployed multiple fighters with a capability to attack air targets
at all altitudes.

107 Mockaitis, Thomas R.: Iraq War Encyclopedia ABC-CLIO, 2013
108 https://www.airforcemag.com/PDF/MagazineArchive/Magazine Documents/2003/July 2003/0703Numbers.pdf
109 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_inva … ns_for_war

110

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Iraq war 2003–2011 (continued)

G. Capability to differentiate between civil and
military aircraft:
1. Differentiation supported by radar, electronic
identification and non-cooperative target
recognition systems measuring signature using
acoustic and thermal radiation, radio emissions,
radar techniques.
2. Differentiation supported by radar and electronic identification (e.g., identification, friend
or foe (IFF), secondary surveillance radar (SSR).
3. Differentiation supported only by radar tracks.

Differentiation supported by radar, electronic identification and noncooperative target recognition systems measuring signature using acoustic
and thermal radiation, radio emissions, radar techniques.

H. SAM/AAM operators’ experience and chain of
command:
1. Regular forces.
2. SAMs in the possession of irregular military
forces OR an absence of robust SAM/AAM
command and control procedures for
authorizing launch.
3. SAMs in the possession of irregular military
forces AND an absence of robust SAM/
AAM command and control procedures for
authorizing launch.

Regular forces.
Capability existed on both sides.110
Extensive use of SAMs by the Iraqi military. Iraq fired approximately 1,600 radar
guided SAMs during the invasion, failing to down a single allied aircraft.
US Patriot batteries mistakenly shot down a UK Tornado GR4 and a USN FA-18 in
separate friendly fire incidents.

I. Known intent to attack:
1. Known intent to attack military aircraft.
2. Known intent to attack civil aircraft.
3. Communication of intent and a plan to attack
civil aircraft or actual attack against civil aircraft

Known intent to attack military aircraft.
Iraqi military forces were openly motivated to attack allied aircraft. Reports
indicate that Saddam Hussein personally encouraged the shooting of allied
aircraft, offering $5000 to any unit that shot down a US aircraft and $2500 to any
soldier capturing a pilot

J. Civil aircraft operations over or close to conflict
zone (with and without the airspace restrictions
if any):
1. No or occasional traffic.
2. Small to moderate traffic volume (for example
restricted to arrivals and departures to airports).
3. Considerable traffic volume, including
international overflights

Small to minimal traffic volume.
Iraq airspace was closed to civilian traffic at the beginning of the war. Coalition
forces, in collaboration with ICAO and other stakeholders, opened the airspace to
civil overflights in August 2003, leading to overflight traffic increasing. However,
the development of optional routes around the airspace limited the number

Airspace Closure

Airspace restrictions
Describes when airspace restrictions were introduced,
what airspace they affected and how they evolved
over time including:
• Restrictions by the responsible for the airspace
sovereign authority (the state).
• Restrictions by others — third parties and/or
neighboring states

1. Restrictions by the responsible for the airspace sovereign authority (the
state)
No information found
2. Others
Several national aviation authorities and third-party organisations closed
Iraq airspace to civilian traffic at the beginning of the war. Coalition forces, in
collaboration with ICAO and other stakeholders opened the airspace to civil
overflights in August 2003.

Reasons for airspace restrictions
Describes the reasons for airspace restrictions,
weapons known to be in the area and their range/
capabilities, what traffic was vulnerable, known or
suspected intent to attack civil aviation and whether
there was concern about unintentional attack.

Military operations area.

Decision-making
Describes the source(s) of the threat information;
who made the decision regarding the restrictions and
with whom was the decision coordinated; was the
decision-making process different from the normal or
standard airspace decision-making process.

No documentation of decisions by Iraqi government can be found. The
airspace limitations were driven by national organisations outside Iraq and by
international coalition forces.

110 Mockaitis, Thomas R.: Iraq War Encyclopedia ABC-CLIO, 2015, pg.18

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Iraq war 2003–2011 (continued)

Promulgation
Describes how the restrictions were published,
number of the NOTAMs if available, AIS.

NOTAM and EUROCONTROL AIM.
ICAO

Notes
Other relevant information

112

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Kosovo–Allied Force 1999
Likelihood of attack indicators

A. Parties:
1. Conflict between states.
2. Conflict between non-state armed groups and
state(s) or civil wars.
3. Conflict between non-state armed groups

Conflict between non-state armed groups and state(s) or civil wars.
Conflict between states.
The conflicting parties in the Kosovo war were: Kosovo Liberation Army, Republic
of Kosovo, Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and NATO (since 24 March 1999). It
started in late February 1998 and lasted until 11 June 1999.
In early 1998, violence erupted within Kosovo between Yugoslavian (Serb) forces
and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). United Nations Security Council Resolution
1199, passed on 23 September 1998, demanded a ceasefire in Kosovo. On 13
October 1998, NATO’s North Atlantic Council authorized activation orders for air
strikes. The crisis intensified in November and December 1998. NATO launched
Operation Allied Force on 24 March 1999.

B. Armed conflict scale and/or tensions:
1. Terrorism and/or international political tension.
2. Insurgency (small-scale military activities) and/
or medium increasing political tension.
3. Large-scale military activities and/or
heightened international political tension.

Large-scale military activities.
Operation Allied Force involved close to 1000 NATO aircraft in an air campaign
that lasted 78 days. NATO flew more than 38,000 sorties, of which 10,484 were
strike sorties.

C. Military air transport activities:
1. Military air transport activities not reported.
2. Occasional use of aircraft to transport ground
troops or military equipment.
3. More than occasional use of aircraft to transport
ground troops or military equipment by at least
one party).

More than occasional use of aircraft to transport ground troops or military
equipment by at least one party (such aircraft may be more difficult to
distinguish from civil aircraft, particularly where operating near airways
and close to civil aircraft cruising altitudes).
3 x AWACS overland orbits manned 24-hrs.
EC–130s served as Airborne Battlefield Command and Control Center (ABCCC).
C–17, C–5 Galaxy and C–130 were used to transport cargo into certain airfields.

D. Military air combat activities:
1. No military air combat activities.
2. Small-scale (occasional) military air combat
activities and/or some activities above FL 250.
3. Large- to medium-scale military air combat
activities and/or regular activities above FL 250

Large- to medium-scale military air combat activities.
Military combat activities involving multiple regional parties and NATO.

E. Known attacks:
1. Conflict area without publicly reported security
incidents involving military and civil aviation.
2. Conflict area with single security-related
reported incident/accident involving military
(or civil) aviation.
3. Conflict area with multiple reported securityrelated incident/accident involving military (or
civil) aviation.

Conflict area with multiple reported incident/accident for military (or civil)
aviation.
On 24 March 1999 two Yugoslav Air Force MiG-29s were shot down by two USAF
F-15Cs with AMRAAM missiles. Different sources claim one of the MiG-29s was
downed by friendly ground fire.
On 24 March 1999, during Operation Allied Force, a Dutch F-16AM J-063 shot
down a Yugoslavian MiG-29 with an AMRAAM missile. The pilot of the stricken jet
ejected safely.
On 26 March 1999 two Yugoslavian MiG-29s were shot down by two USAF F-15Cs
with AMRAAM missiles.
On 27 March 1999 an American F-117A Nighthawk stealth bomber was shot
down over Belgrade by a Soviet-made S-125E SAM. The pilot ejected safely and
the plane’s wreckage was recovered by Serbian special forces.
On 2 May 1999 a USAF F-16CG was shot down over Serbia. It was downed by an
S-125 Neva SAM (NATO: SA-3) near Nakucani. The pilot ejected and was later
rescued by a combat search-and-rescue mission.
On 4 May 1999 a lone Yugoslav MiG-29 attempted to intercept a large NATO
formation that was returning to base. It was engaged by a pair of USAF F-16CJs
from the 78th Fighter Squadron and shot down with an AIM-120, killing the pilot.
The falling wreckage was hit by a Strela 2M fired by the Yugoslav army in error.
On 4 May 1999 a Yugoslav Mi-8T was shot down by a French Super Etendard

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Kosovo–Allied Force 1999 (continued)

F. Capability to attack by at least one party:
1. No information for capability to attack with
range above FL 250.
2. Air-to-air missiles launched from fighter aircraft
(and no SAMs).
3. Long-range surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) that
can hit an aircraft at cruising level.

Long-range surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) that can hit an aircraft at cruising
level.
Both parties in this conflict had the capability to hit civilian aircraft in the region.
Federal Republic of Yugoslavia:
S-75 Dvina (NATO reporting name SA2) is a Soviet-designed, high-altitude air
defence system with engagement altitude of 82,000 ft.
S-125 Neva/Pechora (NATO reporting name SA3), that shot down American
F-117A Nighthawk stealth bomber, F-16 and possibly some UAVs, mobile surfaceto-air missile system is a Soviet surface to air missile system with engagement
altitude of 59,000 ft.
2K12 Kub mobile SAM. The 2K12 “Kub“ (NATO reporting name: SA-6 “Gainful”)
low to medium-level air defence system designed to protect ground forces from
air attack with engagement altitude, depending on the modification, of up to
46,000ft.
Other capabilities for lower altitudes: 9K32 Strela-2 (SA-7), 9K31 Strela-1 (SA-9),
9K35 Strela-10 (SA-13), 9K34 Strela-3 (SA-14), 9K310 Igla-1 (SA-16) and mobile
AAA batteries (multiple types)
Air-to-air missiles launched from fighter aircraft.
Multiple NATO fighters with radar and IR AAMs.
SAM capability for warships in the region — DDGs (guided missile destroyers)
protecting the carrier group

G. Capability to differentiate between civil and
military aircraft:
1. Differentiation supported by radar, electronic
identification and non-cooperative target
recognition systems measuring signature using
acoustic and thermal radiation, radio emissions,
radar techniques.
2. Differentiation supported by radar and
electronic identification (e.g., identification,
friend or foe (IFF), secondary surveillance radar
(SSR).
3. Differentiation supported only by radar tracks.

Differentiation supported by radar and electronic identification (e.g.
identification, friend or foe (IFF), SSR).

H. SAM/AAM operators’ experience and chain of
command:
1. Regular forces.
2. SAMs in the possession of irregular military
forces OR an absence of robust SAM/AAM
command and control procedures for
authorizing launch.
3. SAMs in the possession of irregular military
forces AND an absence of robust SAM/
AAM command and control procedures for
authorizing launch.

Regular forces.

I. Known intent to attack:
1. Known intent to attack military aircraft.
2. Known intent to attack civil aircraft.
3. Communication of intent and a plan to attack
civil aircraft or actual attack against civil aircraft

Known intent to attack military aircraft.
See the incidents and accidents reported in section E.

J. Civil aircraft operations over or close to conflict
zone (with and without the airspace restrictions
if any):
1. No or occasional traffic.
2. Small to moderate traffic volume (for example
restricted to arrivals and departures to airports).
3. Considerable traffic volume, including
international overflights.

No civil aircraft operations during the airspace restrictions.
Considerable traffic volume, including international overflights prior the
restrictions.
The airspace of Federal Republic of Yugoslavia was characterized by considerable
overflight traffic volume, with overflights from Turkey, Greece, Middle East and
Asia Pacific to Central and Western Europe.

114

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Kosovo–Allied Force 1999 (continued)
Airspace Closure

Airspace restrictions
Describes when airspace restrictions were introduced,
what airspace they affected and how they evolved
over time including:
• Restrictions by the responsible for the airspace
sovereign authority (the state).
• Restrictions by others — third parties and/or
neighboring states.

1. Restrictions by the responsible for the airspace sovereign authority (the
state)
No information found
2. Others
24 Mar 1999–10 June 1999
The entire airspace of Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia
and Herzegovina, FYROM, parts of southern Hungary, western Romania and
Bulgaria, northern Greece, entire airspace over Albania and almost entire airspace
over Adriatic Sea was closed.
The airspace closure was immediately associated with Operation Allied Force and
there were no prior airspace restrictions for the period of escalation starting in
1998.
The airspace of Federal Republic of Yugoslavia was opened for civilian traffic in
Sep 1999.
An air security zone, including the airspace of Kosovo, remained closed for civil
aircraft until 3 April 2014.

Reasons for airspace restrictions
Describes the reasons for airspace restrictions,
weapons known to be in the area and their range/
capabilities, what traffic was vulnerable, known or
suspected intent to attack civil aviation and whether
there was concern about unintentional attack.

NATO air strikes.
NATO aircraft and Tomahawk missiles from the air and Federal Republic of
Yugoslavia air defence systems from the ground.
US Navy Carrier Air Group in Adriatic Sea

Decision-making
Describes the source(s) of the threat information;
who made the decision regarding the restrictions and
with whom was the decision coordinated; was the
decision-making process different from the normal or
standard airspace decision-making process.

Decision to close the described airspace came from all neighbouring states in
order to stop the traffic to/from/over Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.
Technical support provided by EUROCONTROL. All flight plans to/from and over
Federal Republic of Yugoslavia were rejected.

Promulgation
Describes how the restrictions were published,
number of the NOTAMs if available, AIS.

NOTAM and EUROCONTROL AIM.
A substantial preparation with the inclusion of all states whose airspace was used
by NATO air forces.
EUROCONTROL participated in coordination and provided technical support.

Notes
Other relevant information

References:
U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, Yugoslavia: Military Dynamics of a Potential
Civil War, March 1991
U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, Combat forces in former Yugoslavia, July 1993
Daniel L. Haulman, Air Power History, “The U.S. Air Force in the Air War Over
Serbia 1999,” Summer 2015
Daniel L. Haulman, Air Force historical Research Agency, MANNED AIRCRAFT
LOSSES OVER THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA, 1994–1999, October 2009

115

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Libya 2011
Likelihood of attack indicators

A. Parties:
1. Conflict between states.
2. Conflict between non-state armed groups and
state(s) or civil wars.
3. Conflict between non-state armed groups.

Conflict between non-state armed groups and state(s) or civil wars.
Conflict between states.
The conflicting parties in the Kosovo war were: Kosovo Liberation Army, Republic
of Kosovo, Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and NATO (since 24 March 1999). It
started in late February 1998 and lasted until 11 June 1999.
In early 1998, violence erupted within Kosovo between Yugoslavian (Serb) forces
and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). United Nations Security Council Resolution
1199, passed on 23 September 1998, demanded a ceasefire in Kosovo. On 13
October 1998, NATO’s North Atlantic Council authorized activation orders for air
strikes. The crisis intensified in November and December 1998. NATO launched
Operation Allied Force on 24 March 1999.

B. Armed conflict scale and/or tensions:
1. Terrorism and/or international political tension.
2. Insurgency (small-scale military activities) and/
or medium increasing political tension.
3. Large-scale military activities and/or
heightened international political tension.

Large-scale military activities.
Operation Allied Force involved close to 1000 NATO aircraft in an air campaign
that lasted 78 days. NATO flew more than 38,000 sorties, of which 10,484 were
strike sorties.

C. Military air transport activities:
1. Military air transport activities not reported.
2. Occasional use of aircraft to transport ground
troops or military equipment.
3. More than occasional use of aircraft to transport
ground troops or military equipment by at least
one party).

More than occasional use of aircraft to transport ground troops or military
equipment by at least one party (such aircraft may be more difficult to
distinguish from civil aircraft, particularly where operating near airways
and close to civil aircraft cruising altitudes).
3 x AWACS overland orbits manned 24-hrs.
EC–130s served as Airborne Battlefield Command and Control Center (ABCCC).
C–17, C–5 Galaxy and C–130 were used to transport cargo into certain airfields.

D. Military air combat activities:
1. No military air combat activities.
2. Small-scale (occasional) military air combat
activities and/or some activities above FL 250.
3. Large- to medium-scale military air combat
activities and/or regular activities above FL 250

Large- to medium-scale military air combat activities.
Military combat activities involving multiple regional parties and NATO.

E. Known attacks:
1. Conflict area without publicly reported security
incidents involving military and civil aviation.
2. Conflict area with single security-related
reported incident/accident involving military
(or civil) aviation.
3. Conflict area with multiple reported securityrelated incident/accident involving military (or
civil) aviation.

Conflict area with multiple reported incident/accident for military (or civil)
aviation.
On 24 March 1999 two Yugoslav Air Force MiG-29s were shot down by two USAF
F-15Cs with AMRAAM missiles. Different sources claim one of the MiG-29s was
downed by friendly ground fire.
On 24 March 1999, during Operation Allied Force, a Dutch F-16AM J-063 shot
down a Yugoslavian MiG-29 with an AMRAAM missile. The pilot of the stricken jet
ejected safely.
On 26 March 1999 two Yugoslavian MiG-29s were shot down by two USAF F-15Cs
with AMRAAM missiles.
On 27 March 1999 an American F-117A Nighthawk stealth bomber was shot
down over Belgrade by a Soviet-made S-125E SAM. The pilot ejected safely and
the plane’s wreckage was recovered by Serbian special forces.
On 2 May 1999 a USAF F-16CG was shot down over Serbia. It was downed by an
S-125 Neva SAM (NATO: SA-3) near Nakucani. The pilot ejected and was later
rescued by a combat search-and-rescue mission.
On 4 May 1999 a lone Yugoslav MiG-29 attempted to intercept a large NATO
formation that was returning to base. It was engaged by a pair of USAF F-16CJs
from the 78th Fighter Squadron and shot down with an AIM-120, killing the pilot.
The falling wreckage was hit by a Strela 2M fired by the Yugoslav army in error.
On 4 May 1999 a Yugoslav Mi-8T was shot down by a French Super Etendard.

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Libya 2011 (continued)

F. Capability to attack by at least one party:
1. No information for capability to attack with
range above FL 250.
2. Air-to-air missiles launched from fighter aircraft
(and no SAMs).
3. Long-range surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) that
can hit an aircraft at cruising level.

Long-range surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) that can hit an aircraft at cruising
level.
Both parties in this conflict had the capability to hit civilian aircraft in the region.
Armed Forces of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya:
Crotale, SA-7 Grail, SA-9/SA-13 SAMs, and AA guns in Army service. A separate
Air Defence Command had SA-2 Guideline, SA-3 Goa, SA-5 Gammon, and SA-8b
Gecko, plus guns.
S-75 Dvina (NATO reporting name SA2) is a Soviet-designed, high-altitude air
defence system with engagement altitude of 82,000 ft. S-75 — 6 Brigades with 18
launchers each;
S-125 Neva/Pechora (NATO reporting name SA3) mobile surface-to-air missile
system is a Soviet SAM system with engagement altitude of 59,000 ft. S125 — 9
Brigades with 12 launchers each;
S-200 (NATO reporting name SA-5) is a very long range, medium-to-high altitude
SAM system to defend large areas from bomber attack or other strategic aircraft
with engagement altitude of 130,000 ft. S-200– 8 battalions of six launchers each
at four sites and an estimated 380 missiles.
The Crotale EDIR (“InfraRed Differential Ecartometry”) is an all-weather shortrange anti-air missile, originally developed by France, which can be used to
intercept low-flight anti-ship missiles and aircraft with engagement altitude of up
to 30,000 ft. Crotale — nine acquisition and 27 firing units.
The 9K33 Osa (NATO reporting name SA-8 Gecko) is a mobile, low-altitude, shortrange tactical surface-to-air missile system designed in the Soviet Union with
engagement altitude of 39,000 ft. 9K33 Osa/ SA-8 Gecko — 50
9K38 Igla (NATO reporting name SA-18 Grouse) is a Russian/Soviet man-portable
infrared homing surface-to-air missile with and engagement altitude of 11,000 ft.
9K38 Igla — 380;
50 2K12 Kub mobile SAM. The 2K12 “Kub” (NATO reporting name: SA-6 “Gainful”)
low to medium-level air defence system designed to protect ground forces from
air attack with engagement altitude, depending on the modification, of up to
46,000 ft.
Other capabilities for lower altitudes: 200 9K34 Strela-3 (SA-14) — 278;
The National Transitional Council of Libya — The National Liberation Army:
9K32 Strela-2 (SA-7)
NATO:
NATO had the capability to hit civilian aircraft in the region.

G. Capability to differentiate between civil and
military aircraft:
1. Differentiation supported by radar, electronic
identification and non-cooperative target
recognition systems measuring signature using
acoustic and thermal radiation, radio emissions,
radar techniques.
2. Differentiation supported by radar and
electronic identification (e.g., identification,
friend or foe (IFF), secondary surveillance radar
(SSR).
3. Differentiation supported only by radar tracks.

Differentiation supported only by radar tracks.
NATO had more sophisticated capabilities to differentiate.

H. SAM/AAM operators’ experience and chain of
command:
1. Regular forces.
2. SAMs in the possession of irregular military
forces OR an absence of robust SAM/AAM
command and control procedures for
authorizing launch.
3. SAMs in the possession of irregular military
forces AND an absence of robust SAM/
AAM command and control procedures for
authorizing launch.

Regular forces.

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Libya 2011 (continued)

I. Known intent to attack:
1. Known intent to attack military aircraft.
2. Known intent to attack civil aircraft.
3. Communication of intent and a plan to attack
civil aircraft or actual attack against civil aircraft.

Known intent to attack military aircraft.
See the incidents and accidents reported in section E.

J. Civil aircraft operations over or close to conflict
zone (with and without the airspace restrictions
if any):
1. No or occasional traffic.
2. Small to moderate traffic volume (for example
restricted to arrivals and departures to airports).
3. Considerable traffic volume, including
international overflights.

No or occasional traffic after the restrictions.
Moderate traffic volume, including international overflights prior the
restrictions.
The infrastructure of Libya’s air traffic control has largely been destroyed and only
sporadic military air activities are conducted. On 18 March the Libyan airspace
was closed from some neighbours.

Airspace Closure

Airspace restrictions
Describes when airspace restrictions were introduced,
what airspace they affected and how they evolved
over time including:
• Restrictions by the responsible for the airspace
sovereign authority (the state).
• Restrictions by others — third parties and/or
neighboring states.

1. Restrictions by the responsible for the airspace sovereign authority (the
state)
No information found
2. Others
On 18 March the Libyan airspace was closed, supported by countries with
neighbouring airspace, to all traffic, reacting to a U.N. resolution.
Beginning in early November 2011, a step-by-step approach has been followed
for a safe transition of airspace, owing to the coordination between ICAO,
EUROCONTROL, and the respective civil aviation authorities concerned (Malta,
Tunisia, Egypt and Libya) and air traffic services over the central Mediterranean
high seas and Libyan territory, as follows:
Phase 1. The current situation, following the end of the no-fly zone in November,
allowed the reopening of the main airports of Tripoli International, Tripoli Mitiga,
Sabha, Benghazi and Misratah to civilian traffic.
Phase 2. On 1 February 2012, two contingency north/south overflight routes were
opened, allowing gradually increasing traffic as deemed necessary. The remaining
routes will be released by the Libyan Civil Aviation Authority as soon as the
operational conditions are fulfilled.
Phase 3. From 1 April to 3 May 2012, aviation authorities added more routes to
the overflight system, and reopened new airports on a regular basis with their
associated contingency routes.

Reasons for airspace restrictions
Describes the reasons for airspace restrictions,
weapons known to be in the area and their range/
capabilities, what traffic was vulnerable, known or
suspected intent to attack civil aviation and whether
there was concern about unintentional attack.

UN Security Council Resolution 1973 was adopted on 17 March 2011. The
resolution authorised member states to establish and enforce a no-fly zone over
Libya, and to use “all necessary measures” to prevent attacks on civilians. The
resolution was the legal basis for military intervention by the forces of NATO.

Decision-making
Describes the source(s) of the threat information;
who made the decision regarding the restrictions and
with whom was the decision coordinated; was the
decision-making process different from the normal or
standard airspace decision-making process.

Decision to close the described airspace came from all neighbouring states.
Technical support provided by EUROCONTROL.

Promulgation
Describes how the restrictions were published,
number of the NOTAMs if available, AIS.

NOTAM and EUROCONTROL actions.

Notes
Other relevant information

References:
UN Security Council, Resolution 1973 (2011), 17 March 2011
UN Security Council, Resolution 2009 (2011), 16 September 2011
Jaffe S., Airspace Closure and Civil Aviation, 2015

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Slovenia 1991
Likelihood of attack indicators

A. Parties:
1. Conflict between states.
2. Conflict between non-state armed groups and
state(s) or civil wars.
3. Conflict between non-state armed groups.

Conflict between non-state armed groups and state(s) or civil wars.
The conflicting parties in the Slovenian war in 1991 were Slovenia and Yugoslavia.
The belligerents Slovenian Territorial Defence and Slovenian police on one side
and the Yugoslav People’s Army on the other side.
The war lasted from 27 June 1991 until 7 July 1991, when the Brioni Accords were
signed.

B. Armed conflict scale and/or tensions:
1. Terrorism and/or international political tension.
2. Insurgency (small-scale military activities) and/
or medium increasing political tension.
3. Large-scale military activities and/or
heightened international political tension.

Insurgency or small-scale military activities.

C. Military air transport activities:
1. Military air transport activities not reported.
2. Occasional use of aircraft to transport ground
troops or military equipment.
3. More than occasional use of aircraft to transport
ground troops or military equipment by at least
one party)

Occasional use of aircraft to transport ground troops or military
equipment.

D. Military air combat activities:
1. No military air combat activities.
2. Small-scale (occasional) military air combat
activities and/or some activities above FL 250.
3. Large- to medium-scale military air combat
activities and/or regular activities above FL 250

Small-scale military air combat activities.

E. Known attacks:
1. Conflict area without publicly reported security
incidents involving military and civil aviation.
2. Conflict area with single security-related
reported incident/accident involving military
(or civil) aviation.
3. Conflict area with multiple reported securityrelated incident/accident involving military (or
civil) aviation.

Conflict area with single reported incident/accident involving military (or
civil) aviation.
On 27 June 1991, the Slovenian Territorial Defence shot down two Yugoslav
People’s Army helicopters with SA-7 missiles.

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Slovenia 1991 (continued)

F. Capability to attack by at least one party:
1. No information for capability to attack with
range above FL 250.
2. Air-to-air missiles launched from fighter aircraft
(and no SAMs).
3. Long-range surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) that
can hit an aircraft at cruising level

Long-range surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) that can hit an aircraft at cruising
altitude.
Federal Republic of Yugoslavia:
At the start of the war, the Yugoslav national air defence force possessed more
than 100 search radars, eight battalions of SA-2s, six battalions of SA-3s, one
battalion of SA-5s, four battalions of SA-6/11s, and 15 regiments of anticraft guns.
For support of the army, there were also SA-9, SA-13 mobile IR-guided SAMs, and
thousands of SA-7 and SA-16 MANPADS.
S-75 Dvina (NATO reporting name SA2) is a Soviet-designed, high-altitude air
defence system with engagement altitude of 82,000 ft.
S-125 Neva/Pechora (NATO reporting name SA3) mobile surface-to-air missile
system is a Soviet-made SAM system with engagement altitude of 59,000ft.
S-200 (NATO reporting name SA-5) is a very long range, medium-to-high altitude
SAM system to defend large areas from bomber attack or other strategic aircraft.
It has an engagement altitude of 130,000ft.
2K12 Kub mobile SAM. The 2K12 “Kub” (NATO reporting name: SA-6 “Gainful”)
low- to medium-level air defence system designed to protect ground forces from
air attack with engagement altitude, depending on the modification, of up to
46,000 ft.
Other capabilities for lower altitudes: 9K32 Strela-2 (SA-7), 9K31 Strela-1 (SA-9),
9K35 Strela-10 (SA-13), 9K34 Strela-3 (SA-14), 9K310 Igla-1 (SA-16) and mobile
AAA batteries (multiple types).
Slovenian Territorial Defence:
9K31 Strela-1 (SA-9) is a mobile, short-range, low altitude infra-red guided
surface-to-air missile system and shoulder-fired 9K32 Strela-2 (SA-7).

G. Capability to differentiate between civil and
military aircraft:
1. Differentiation supported by radar, electronic
identification and non-cooperative target
recognition systems measuring signature using
acoustic and thermal radiation, radio emissions,
radar techniques.
2. Differentiation supported by radar and
electronic identification (e.g., identification,
friend or foe (IFF), secondary surveillance radar
(SSR).
3. Differentiation supported only by radar tracks.

Differentiation supported by radar and electronic identification (e.g.,
identification, friend or foe (IFF), secondary surveillance radar (SSR).

H. SAM/AAM operators’ experience and chain of
command:
1. Regular forces.
2. SAMs in the possession of irregular military
forces OR an absence of robust SAM/AAM
command and control procedures for
authorizing launch.
3. SAMs in the possession of irregular military
forces AND an absence of robust SAM/
AAM command and control procedures for
authorizing launch.

Regular forces.

I. Known intent to attack:
1. Known intent to attack military aircraft.
2. Known intent to attack civil aircraft.
3. Communication of intent and a plan to attack
civil aircraft or actual attack against civil aircraft.

Known intent to attack military aircraft.
See the incidents and accidents reported in section E.

120

Ñòð.115

Slovenia 1991 (continued)

J. Civil aircraft operations over or close to conflict
zone (with and without the airspace restrictions
if any):
1. No or occasional traffic.
2. Small to moderate traffic volume (for example
restricted to arrivals and departures to airports).
3. Considerable traffic volume, including
international overflights.

No or occasional traffic.
Moderate traffic volume, including international overflights prior the
restrictions

Airspace Closure

Airspace restrictions
Describes when airspace restrictions were introduced,
what airspace they affected and how they evolved
over time including:
• Restrictions by the responsible for the airspace
sovereign authority (the state).
• Restrictions by others — third parties and/or
neighboring states.

1. Restrictions by the responsible for the airspace sovereign authority (the
state)
On 26 June, at 1330, the Ljubljana airport and the airspace above Slovenia was
closed by the federal air traffic control.
The federal air traffic control closed FIR Zagreb on 31 August at 15:00.
On 1 September at 0930 FIR Zagreb was opened.
On 15 September FIR Zagreb was again closed at 14:52.
After the airports in Ljubljana and Zagreb were closed, and because of the
serious threat of further attacks in Slovenia by the federal army, high increases in
insurance premiums for individual flights in Croatia and because of all the general
uncertainties, the management of Adria Airways decided to transfer its operations
abroad after 8 July 1991. Adria aircraft landed at airports in Klagenfurt, Frankfurt
and Vienna.
On 15 January 1992 an agreement was reached with Austria for provision of air
traffic control in Slovenian airspace. At midnight on 22 January 1992 Slovenian
airspace was opened when an agreement between Slovenian and Austrian
aviation authorities came into force.
The Ljubljana airport was shutdown, with rare exceptions, until February 1992.

Reasons for airspace restrictions
Describes the reasons for airspace restrictions,
weapons known to be in the area and their range/
capabilities, what traffic was vulnerable, known or
suspected intent to attack civil aviation and whether
there was concern about unintentional attack.

The reason for the initial restrictions was “technical shortcomings.”
The closure of airspace followed immediately after 25 June when Slovenia passed
its act of independence and coincided with a plan the Slovenian government
had already put into action to seize control of the republic’s border posts and the
international airport.

Decision-making
Describes the source(s) of the threat information;
who made the decision regarding the restrictions and
with whom was the decision coordinated; was the
decision-making process different from the normal or
standard airspace decision-making process.

The Brioni Declaration stated in the paragraph on air transport that there is
only one air traffic control for the whole of Yugoslavia and that all domestic and
international air traffic through Yugoslavia would be supervised and provided by
the competent federal authority.
Subsequently, in January 1992 Slovenia agreed with Austria for the provision of
air traffic control.

Promulgation
Describes how the restrictions were published,
number of the NOTAMs if available, AIS.

References not found

Notes
Other relevant information

References:
U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, Yugoslavia: Military Dynamics of a Potential
Civil War, March 1991
Adria Airways Kronika 1991
U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, Combat forces in former Yugoslavia, July 1993
Daniel L. Haulman, Air Force historical Research Agency, MANNED AIRCRAFT
LOSSES OVER THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA, 1994–1999, October 2009


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